Footy Forensics: Dragons v Raiders

It's out to Mudgee for the Dragons as they look to bounce back from their defeat to the Rabbitohs last week. In their way is the Raiders who made sure they would fall short of the Sharks and their first win over a Top 8 side in Round 10.

Both sides have named unchanged lineups for this one but most notably, the Dragons haven't had to change their starting 13 once this season. Their cohesion shows in both attack and defence and offers up a clear indication this game might go exactly how the form guide suggests it should.

As a result, the Stats Insider Model doesn't see this one keeping very close.

In 10,000 simulations of Dragons v Raiders, the Model has the Red V coming out on top by a considerable margin.

The Model's confidence in the Dragons is reflected in the odds with the Raiders coming in at $3.40 H2H.

With only 29% of simulated matches finishing with the Raiders taking the chocolates, their odds warrant a slight lean in terms of value.

As heavy favourites, the Dragons at $1.34 aren't worth touching. 

So, maybe the Line gives us something to be confident in?

Not quite.

The Model is split straight down the guts on the Line with neither the Red V or Green Machine offering up enough to warrant siding one way or the other.

If you're going to trust anything, it's the Dragons covering the -9.5 with their league-best attack.

They can score from anywhere and put points on in a hurry while the Raiders have been seen to let their heads drop when the going gets tough. Giving up 24 points at home last week to a Cronulla side that ranks 12th in points per game (17ppg) isn't a great sign for Canberra backers.

If St George gets off to a quick start with a couple of tries, that -9.5 Line will be gone by the time oranges are being served.

The Totals market doesn't push us in a convincing direction either.

With only 54% of matches going Under the 44 points total, it's not enough to see it qualify as a Stats Insider Value Bet.

In fact, nothing does.

With the bookmakers respecting the Dragons' hot form along with the fact the Raiders haven't beaten any club of note this season, there isn't any obvious value anywhere.

However, given the nature of this very website's target market, "No Bet" is rarely an option.

So if a punt is a must, it becomes a trust exercise.

Do you trust the Dragons who are first in both attack and defence to pile on the points to cover the -9.5 and perhaps see the total tick over the 44 points?

Or, do you have more faith in the Raiders who are fifth in attack (22.3ppg) and ninth in defence (21.6 points conceded per game) to put a lid on the Dragons attack and hold the total Under?

Option A, please.