Footy Forensics - Dragons v Roosters

For the 17th consecutive season, the Dragons play the Roosters on Anzac Day.

It's a tough game to get a read on with the Dragons backing up from their first loss of the season while the Roosters picked up one of the least-convincing wins you'll ever see last week.

If there's ever a game to look for the Stats Insider Model for guidance, it's this one.

For a start, we're expecting a close game with the Model spitting out a one-point win to the Dragons.

It makes a lot of sense given the history of these two sides on Anzac Day - the last three games have been decided by a total of five points.

Naturally, there isn't much sign of a 'sure thing' in the H2H market while anticipating such an even contest. The Dragons are justifiable favourites at $1.78 with the inconsistent Roosters coming in at $2.05.

With the way they've been playing so far this season, Sydney at $2.05 isn't getting a look from me. The same lapses in concentration that put the handbrake on their 2017 season still rear their ugly head far too often.

The Line doesn't offer up a lot of hope, either.

Through 10,000 simulations, the SI Model has the Roosters covering the +1.5 spread in 56% of matches.

I'm not so convinced.

The Roosters make every sort of mistake the Dragons have proven capable of pouncing on.

With 13.7 errors per game, the Chooks give away far too much possession. Putting themselves under pressure being forced to make tackle after tackle, they consume much of the energy that should be put aside for their attack.

As a result, the stacked Roosters side featuring elite attacking players across the paddock average just 18.6 points per game - the same as the struggling Titans, and just 0.6 points more than the defence-first Tigers.

The Dragons, on the other hand, lead the competition with 29.4 points per game while conceding the second fewest (14.3).

Given the talent on the roster, the Roosters could very well come out and put it all together. Trusting them to do so is the issue.

If you're looking to place your faith in something clear-cut, you're out of luck.

The 36.5 points total is lowest of any match in Round 8 and appears far too low to confidently tip the Under on what is forecast to be a sunny Wednesday afternoon.

Following 10,000 simulations the Model leans towards the Under in 54% of matches.

With the percentages coming out of the Model for this one, SI isn't putting any confidence into anything.

Nothing - not a single play - qualifies as a confidence pick in the SI Punting Predictions.

That won't stop most people from putting their hard-earned towards something to make it interesting, though.

If I'm going anywhere, it's the Dragons H2H at $1.78. They've to the pack, defence and attack to deal with the Roosters even if they do manage to produce their best football.

This is a trust exercise and St George is the only team you'd go with here.