Footy Forensics: Dragons v Storm

Fox League have been plugging this game all week so if you've watched one Round 9 match, you know Dragons v Storm is coming.

The hype train is at full tilt, and for a good reason.

You're not going to find two better teams in the NRL right now no matter what the official ladder tells you. This could well be a Grand Final preview. And if it is, the Stats Insider Model is picking St George-Illawarra to lift the Provan-Summons Trophy.

Through 10,000 simulations of the potential Grand Final, the Model likes the Dragons to win it a lot more often than not.

If we're looking at the season as a whole so far, it's the Dragons at the top.

Their only loss has come against a decent Warriors side in New Zealand while they've rarely looked like losing in any of the other seven matches.

Their side is littered with representative talent which will have them fired up for this one. Knowing they are about to be decimated by State of Origin, the Dragons need as many points in the bank as they can get.

If we're only looking at the last three weeks, there is no better team than the Storm.

Thrashing the Warriors 50-10 a week after they beat the Dragons, the Storm had finally clicked - we all knew it was coming.

With the Storm paying $2.10 H2H, there will be plenty of punters hitting 'Quick Bet' on that price before looking at anything else.

But perhaps they should broaden their search for value.

Melbourne are battling a few injuries heading into this one which will have contributed to the Model being all over the St George -2 Line.

With Jesse Bromwich and Tim Glasby already out, Curtis Scott was the next to fall over. Named to play but ruled out later in the week, the Rugby League Gods weren't done yet. Scott's replacement, Young Tonumaipea, was struck down with a hamstring injury.

In comes Justin Olam - somebody that hasn't started a first-grade game in the centres - and the Dragons have found the Storms weak spot.

Clear in its predictions for the H2H and Line markets, the Model has the Total a lot closer.

The 38.5 Total looks bang on.

Both of these teams may be scintillating in attack, but they're also the two best defensive teams in the NRL.

The Dragons concede just 13.5 points per game while the Storm allows only slightly more at 13.9 points per game.

It's going to be a defensive battle and has a 20-18 or 22-16 sort of scoreline written all over it. 

As far as punts go, the Model has found some value.

As painful as it is to go against the Storm when they're getting the headstart, the Dragons -2 looks to be the play here.

The slightest bit of uncertainty in Melbourne's left edge defence is the only area you can split the two sides. A Euan Aitken try, as a result, could very well turn out to be the difference in the match while securing the cover in the process.