Footy Forensics: Dragons v Tigers
Last updated: Jul 15, 2018, 1:03AM | Published: Jul 14, 2018, 12:58AM
This game has the potential to be the game of the round, but it relies on one thing: the Tigers defence.
Once the best defences in the NRL, Wests have fallen away to concede points and lose games over the last two months. Their quest to make the Top 8 has taken a severe hit to now be on a knife-edge.
The Stats Insider Model has some bad news for you, Tigers fans.
It likes the Dragons to win, and win big in this one.
With more than a converted try between the two sides through 10,000 simulations, the Dragons at $1.37 to win doesn't carry a lot of value.
The value lies with the Tigers who take the chocolates at $3.25 in 34% of the simulated matches.
Given the Dragons could be missing one or two of their Origin stars by the time kickoff comes around, there's reason for the Tigers to believe.
However, it all comes down to their defence.
If they're to beat the Dragons who lead the competition in attack at 25.1 points per game, the Tigers need to recapture whatever it was that lead them to build a reputation as a defensive powerhouse over the first two months of the season.
Perhaps their focus has since turned to their attack and the scrambling defence took a back seat?
That can't be the case in this one, though. There's not a chance the Tigers beat the Dragons in a shootout - even with an improved Robbie Farah and Moses Mbye.
Winning the game seems a step too far for Wests, but surely they put all their energy into their defence this week. If they do, covering the +8 Line they're getting at the time of writing is a strong option.
Should the Line stick once the final teams are announced, the Model has the Tigers covering the spread in 55% of the 10,000 simulations.
We've seen the Tigers pull the best attack sides in the competition down a peg this season.
They don't tackle very effectively, but there was no team in the NRL that could scramble and save tries better than the Tigers to start the year.
With their season on the line and the winning formula already clear, it's safe to assume the Tigers get their bodies in front all afternoon and rely on their defence to keep the game close.
Expecting the Tigers to aim up defensively, the Under at 41.5 points comes into play.
The Model doesn't fancy it so much with only 51% of the simulated matches falling Under the Total, but it's worth a look.
Not only are the Dragons an excellent attacking side, they're also in the top six in the competition in defence - one spot ahead of the Tigers.
It's got defensive arm-wrestle written all over it, however, the Model isn't convinced.
In fact, it's not convinced by anything.
It's a straight flush of No Bet's from the Model, but that's not to say there isn't anything worth punting on.
The Under looks a good choice if we're confident in the Tigers defence.
If the game is falling Under, there's a good chance the Tigers are covering the +8 Line too.
The smart decision is to avoid a bet on this game, but if you're getting on anything, take the Tigers at the Line.
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