Footy Forensics: Eels v Bulldogs

In what has turned out to be an absolute nightmare for the schedule-makers, the 16th-placed Eels kick off Round 19 on Thursday night against a Bulldogs side sitting 14th on the ladder.

They're calling it Spoonapalooza on social media...

Based on recent form, it's primed to be one of the ugliest games we will see all season. However, the Stats Insider Model is at least picking it to be a close one.

It's tough to get a read on either of these two teams.

The Eels looked great for 10 minutes last week only to blow their fast start and lose to the Kalyn Ponga-less Knights. Meanwhile, it was only two weeks ago that the Bulldogs had all but beaten the Raiders before one of the great late-game collapses. 

Neither side instils a lot of confidence for punters but based on the Model, there's some value in the Bulldogs at $2.20 to win.

Everybody has been stung by the Eels at least once this season and with Bulldogs winning 48% of the 10,000 simulated matches, there's a good chance it could happen again if you take them at $1.70.

After what they've dished up this season along with their inability to play out a full 80 minutes, $1.70 for the Eels isn't going to cut it.

While the Bulldogs appear to be confined to the bottom four of the ladder for the next two or three seasons, it's not through a lack of effort. They play above themselves to a point. Their lack of talent is ultimately what costs them most weeks, but more often than not, they make it difficult for the opposition.

The same can't be said for the Eels.

Effort was their greatest asset in 2017 and got them to within two games of the Grand Final. They've not come close to replicating that effort in 2018 and, well, the results speak for themselves.

Given the talent they have spread across the park, the head-to-head lean goes with the Eels, but it's not where the value is. 

Covering the spread in 57% of the 10,000 simulations, the Bulldogs +2.5 Line is the way to go.

It comes down to the effort of the Bulldogs again.

Only the Tigers have featured in more 'close games' than the Bulldogs according to NRL.com. The Rabbitohs, Raiders, Panthers and Cowboys are the only teams with a smaller average margin of defeat.

The Bulldogs may only have four wins to their name, but they keep games close.

And with the two sides sitting 13th (Bulldogs, 16.4 points per game) and 16th (Eels, 14.8 points per game) in attack, points are at a premium for this one.

The +2.5 the Bulldogs are getting could prove all the difference in a match that seems unlikely to see either side crack 20 points. 

According to the team lists, the Eels should cover the -2.5 with relative ease. However, every other sign points to the Bulldogs staying within touching distance.

Like the H2H and Handicap markets, the Total is also getting a 'no bet' from the Stats Insider Model.

With the Total set at 37.5, the Model has 54% of matches going Over.

The Over is deserving of the lean.

While the Eels are at the bottom of the NRL in attack, they've shown glimpses throughout the year. It would only take one of their 20-minute flurries to bring the Over into play. As the third-worst defence in the competition, we know they'll gift the Bulldogs a few points coming back the other way.

This game could be an unmitigated disaster and is one the Model is rightfully signalling as one to avoid.

However, it getting a punt on is all that will make this game interesting, back the Bulldogs to keep it close and cover the +2.5 Line.

With the worst record against the spread in the competition, the Eels can't be trusted.

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