Footy Forensics: Eels v Cowboys

If you look up 'desperate' in the dictionary, you'll see a photo of Brad Arthur.

He referenced the fact the Eels players are playing for their future this week, but it's more likely they're playing for Arthur's job - and he knows it.

The coach is always the first one to go and poor Brad's seat must be getting hot.

It gets worse for Arthur with the Stats Insider Model suggesting the temperature will be turned up on Saturday night.

Through 10,000 simulations of Eels v Cowboys, the blue and gold only take the chocolates in 46% of the matches.

It's certainly not the lowest number they've seen to win this season, and even with the fairly appealing $2.89 odds, the Eels aren't getting a look here. 

Unless Parramatta was playing a reserve grade side in the midst of an injury crisis, there's no way to be confident in them head-to-head.

The Cowboys are hardly printing money for punters at $1.44 either. They've not been a whole lot better than the Eels this season, but their team list lends itself to a little more confidence.

On team lists, Parramatta has made a few changes for this week.

Jarryd Hayne returns to the centres while Brad Takairangi shifts into the back row. Corey Norman returns to the side, but Mitchell Moses is now out with a knee injury. Tim Mannah replaces Suaia Matagi on the bench with the big in being Nathan Brown back wearing the number 13 jersey.

He's the guy that sets to tone for the Eels and it's his ability to slow down Jason Taumalolo that will decide this one.

The big Tongan ran for a monstrous 234 metres last week to get the Cowboys on the front foot which ultimately saw them win. While slowing down Taumalolo far from guarantees the Eels walk away with the chocolates, it goes a long way towards punters at the +6.5 Line walking away with the profit. 

The Model has Parramatta's +6.5 Line coming in across 67% of the 10,000 simulated matches.

If you were putting together a list of guys you'd back to be a chance at achieving the impossible and stopping Taumalolo, Brown would be towards the top. 

The pair played out an epic battle in last year's semi-final and Brown will again be relied upon to limit the momentum Taumalolo gains through the middle.

With North Queensland's struggles in attack, Parramatta looks good to keep it close enough to cover the +6.5 spread should Brown have the impact we're expecting. The Cowboys have struggled to score from anywhere on the field outside the 20-metre line so if Taumalolo isn't getting them down that end of the field, points are at a premium.

The battle of the 13's will also influence the Total.

At 55% of the 10,000 simulations, the Model likes the Total to fall Under 39.5 points.

It's a fair lean, but a market not worth touching with a barge pole.

While it might be too late for either side to be a serious Top 8 contender, the anticipation they will eventually put it together remains.

The Cowboys have looked the more likely of the two sides, but the Eels have also shown glimpses of what they can do with the ball if they get on a roll.

It only takes one of them to click and find the 2017 form they so desperately seek for the 39.5 Total to be blown out of the water.

It's not worth looking at, especially with the Model pointing to the Line being a value punt.

At the end of the day, it's a match between two disappointing and inconsistent sides.

It's a nightmare for punters.

However, when all logic is lost and the teams aren't playing to anywhere near the level their team lists suggest they should, we look to the Model.

The Model likes the Eels so back Brown to do a job and keep them close.