Footy Forensics: Eels v Rabbitohs

The Eels finally broke the losing streak, but it's unlikely to be the beginning of a winning streak. 

They're preparing to face the Rabbitohs this week who, with six wins on the bounce, is the hottest team in the NRL.

It's reflected in the simulations with the Stats Insider Model spitting out a sizeable eight-point win going the way of the visitors.

At $1.27 head-to-head, there's no value in taking the Rabbitohs, and while we said taking the Eels was too much of a risk last week ahead of them beating the Cowboys, even their $3.97 odds for this one don't carry the sort of value worth jumping on.

Don't let the two competition points the Eels earned last week fool you. They beat a terrible Cowboys side that made 20 errors and even then, the Eels struggled to victory.

The Rabbitohs should clean up, and the Model is on board.

Through 10,000 simulations of Eels v Rabbitohs, the Model has Souths coming out on top in 68% of the matches.

With all four of their Origin stars returning and Alex Johnston 80 minutes better-off after a lengthy stint on the sidelines, Souths are close to full-strength.

They could be at half-strength and still be favoured here with Parramatta's list far from perfect.

Nathan Brown is fit and firing and the performance of the team has improved as a result, but unless he can singlehandedly slow down all three Burgii, the Bunnies will run all over the Eels middles.

With the go-forward the pack is generating at the moment, Adam Reynolds and Cody Walker are having a field day. 

Regular shifts are catching opposition edges out early in the set which doesn't read well for an Eels defence leaking 22.3 points per game.

Second in scoring at 24.1 points per game, Souths have far too much in attack for Parramatta to contain.

But how much is too much?

Not enough to cover the -8.5 Line according to the Model.

It's not by much, but the Model leans towards Parramatta's +8.5 Line for this one.

While Souths appear to have as many points in them as they'd care to score, pride and desperation can have an immeasurable impact on a teams performance.

Parramatta players have talked all week about righting their wrongs and displaying some pride in the jersey and the logo it bears.

It's enough to throw some doubt towards the idea that the Rabbitohs won't have their way with the Eels and cover the -8.5 as comfortably as the form guide might suggest. 

Should the Eels pack aim up and get in front of oncoming traffic, slowing the Rabbitohs down enough to keep the game close isn't out of the question.

If Souths aren't covering the spread, the Under is the lean although, the Model is straight up and down when it comes to the Total.

The only way Parramatta stays within touching distance of Souths is with a significant defensive effort.

Scoring 13.9 points per game, the Eels are dead last in scoring. They aren't winning this game if it becomes a shootout.

Their 194 points scored in 14 games is exactly the same as what the Bulldogs had this time last season, and they were the laughing stock of the competition in attack.

If that desperation and pride they talked about translates into a strong defensive line, the Under gets a look here.

However, the Model suggests looking elsewhere entirely.

It's a straight flush of 'No Bets' for this one.

It's not a great game for punters to start the round, but if there's a way to go, it's with Souths at the Line.

Parramatta might be talking the talk, but we've not seen them walk the walk.

Souths, on the other hand, have won six in a row, eight of their last nine, and is the best team against the spread in the NRL with a 10-4 record.

The Model leans towards the Eels keeping this game close, but not with much confidence. Trust the Rabbitohs to keep flying and deal with the Eels comfortably enough to cover the -8.5.

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