Footy Forensics: Eels v Sea Eagles

It may be a match between two underperforming and so far disappointing sides, but Eels v Sea Eagles will receive plenty of attention.

The Eels need a win to give themselves hope of a possible finals-bound resurgence while the Sea Eagles need to put an end to their current downward spiral.

Before we get into the off-field aspects that demand consideration in this one, let's take a look at what the Stats Insider Model is projecting.

As expected, the winless Eels ($2.36)  are expected to add to their tally of losses on Sunday with the Stats Insider Model projecting them to win 46% of the 10,000 simulations.

Their attack has been abysmal to average just 7.7 points per game while only the Gold Coast (28.5) and Newcastle (27.3) concede more than Parramatta's 25.3 points per game.

But don't be jumping on the Sea Eagles at $1.60 just yet.

Their first-half performance last week will go down as one of the worst you'll ever see. Carrying awful form and off-field issues into this one; Manly are vulnerable.

Given the form guide we're working with, the H2H market is one to avoid.

It's on the Line we start to see some potential value.

Through 10,000 simulations, the Model has the Eels covering the +4 spread in 57% of matches. They're at home with their back against the wall and while tipping them H2H might seem risky, expecting them to at least keep it close isn't.

With the predictions pointing to a close game, the Under getting plenty of love from the Model.

When one of the two teams is averaging fewer than eight points per game, having this match pass the 41.5 points total is a big ask.

So, what does the Model suggest we do?

Nothing.

In a match between two inconsistent sides, there isn't anything to point to that screams value - none qualify as a Stats Insider value bet.

Nevertheless, anticipating an improved Eels side is enough for me to lean towards the +4 Line.

It's all to do with the off-field news that came to light this week.

Parramatta overachieved with an easy schedule in 2017, but the assumption was they'd continue to compete with the better sides in the NRL given their unwillingness to take a backwards step.

They got by on effort, but so far in 2018, there's been none.

Until this week.

With a chippy training session featuring blood, sweat and a few handbags being thrown, we should see the Eels start to get back to their best this week. When they're fired up, they can beat anybody.

Then there's the troubling news coming out of the Northern Beaches.

Jackson Hastings has been banished to reserve grade because he can't get along with Daly Cherry-Evans. Some of his teammates have since come out to defend Hastings as being "misunderstood", though.

Hastings was initially painted as the villain by the club, but a $10,000 fine handed down to Cherry-Evan suggests he's not squeaky clean.

With a divided squad a recipe for disaster along with the physical coming together of the Eels at training this week, an upset is on the cards. However just to make sure, getting on the blue and gold +4 is the way to go.