Footy Forensics - Eels v Tigers

Hand somebody this matchup two months ago and tell them one club is 5th on the ladder while the other is holding the wooden spoon way down at 16th.

Ask them which club, and every single one of those people would have told you the same thing: Eels are 5th, Tigers are 16th.

Rugby League is a funny game, though. Heading into the final match of Round 8, we now know how foolish those two-month-old predictions now are.

The Eels come in to this one having just won their first game of the season while the Tigers are still flying high following an incredible start to the year.

Predictably unpredictable, these two teams are a nightmare to handicap.

In fact, the Stats Insider Model can't split them.

Through 10,000 simulations of Eels v Tigers, the Model has this match ending in a draw. 

Naturally, there isn't a lot of punting value in this one, although, the Eels at $2.05 H2H will see a few backers given they're coming off a huge 44-10 win over the Sea Eagles last week.

Winning 49% of the 10,000 simulated matches, getting on the Eels to win H2H is for anybody that believes in the turnaround Jarryd Hayne has been preaching for the last fortnight.

There was plenty of evidence of a turnaround last week:

• Their forwards started to find their feet last week in running for just under 1,500 metres while keeping the Sea Eagles to a poultry 825 running metres for the match.
• Clint Gutherson got another 80 minutes into his legs following his third ACL injury.
• Tim Mannah was a monster off the bench for 163 running metres.
• Mitchell Moses and Corey Norman look to be getting back on the same page.

As much evidence as there was last week, it doesn't do much to expel the six rounds of awful football that proceeded it.

The Tigers, on the other hand, were outstanding up until last week. With a pair of wins over the now-rampaging Storm, and one each over the Roosters, Sea Eagles and Eels, the Tigers won five of their first six games.

Even with last weeks shock 22-20 loss to the Knights, they still concede the fewest points in the NRL at just 12.7 per game.

Wests have the wins under their belt but started to look vulnerable last week. As a result, their ability to defend well enough to cover the spread and force the Under aren't getting a massive backing from the model.

With only a few percentage points separating the Head-to-Head, Line and Total, none qualify as an SI Punting Predictions value play.

There's just too much uncertainty given the form guide we've been delivered for this one.

We know this is a nightmare game to tip, but an absence of obvious value is rarely enough to deter the recreational punter.

With Wests history of excruciatingly close games this season combined with Parramatta's encouraging signs last week, taking the Eels at +1.5 is the road to go down if you're ignoring the clear 'road closed' signs plastered at every turn as we approach ANZ Stadium on Sunday afternoon.