Footy Forensics: Eels v Warriors

Friday nights early kickoff is massive for both the Eels and Warriors.

For the Eels, they can't afford to lose games at home. If they drop this one to go 2-9, their hopes of playing finals football will be gone. 

It's a little different for the Warriors. They're third on the ladder when most people thought they'd be languishing down at 16th instead of the Eels. While a match against the likely wooden spooners shouldn't be such a cause for concern, this is the Warriors we're talking about.

"New-look" or not, they're without Shaun Johnson, and as of Thursday night, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck for this one.

Given the two sides involved, this might be the trickiest game to pick all weekend.

Through 10,000 simulations of the match, the Stats Insider Model likes the Warriors, but that is with Tuivasa-Sheck included.

The $1.99 H2H odds suggest the Eels are a chance, but to rely on them recapturing their 2017 effort is risky. They've not displayed anything close to it all season.

Warriors to win at $1.86 is the play here, and it's due to their depth.

With the Warriors missing their captain, that 60% is a little high. Although, they have some capable replacements that can justify it.

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad has been called into the 21 as cover. Primarily a winger, the 22-year-old has played a game at the back for the Cook Islands and is more than capable of filling in for a week.

Gerard Beale is another option. He's not played a first-grade game since getting injured in the World Cup but wears the number 18 jersey coming into this one. He's played 23-games at the back throughout his 162-game career.

If Beale doesn't play at fullback, he could replace David Fusitu'a on the wing with the Tongan international picking up the custodial duties.

An expert under the high ball and a strong runner with the football, the Warriors wouldn't lose too much with Fusitu'a replacing Tuivasa-Sheck.

The Warriors' ability to lose their captain and have three capable replacements ready and waiting sum up what has been wrong with the Eels all season.

When Parramatta lost Nathan Brown in Round 5, the carousel of lock-forwards began. They've had three different players start there in the five weeks since, and are trying a fourth on Friday night.

Unlike the Kiwi club, Parramatta doesn't have the depth which will have a lot to do with the Model's love for the Warriors at the Line.

At the time of writing, the Model has the Warriors covering the +1.5 in 76% of the 10,000 simulated matches.

With a number that high, it qualifies as a two-star value punt.

That doesn't take into account the absence of Tuivasa-Sheck but as we've laid out, they have some competent stop-gaps. 

Paramatta hasn't offered up any reason to think they can all of a sudden spark up and topple a New Zealand side that still features Isaac Luke, Tohu Harris, Blake Green and Adam Blair. 

What Parramatta can do is contribute to the Over.

On occasion, the Eels have strung together a few tries in quick succession and looked dangerous. There's undoubted talent in the side and if they play out one of their 15-minute bursts of attack, the Over is a good lean.

The Model shows 53% of the simulated matches finished Over the 39.5 points total. With the names running out onto ANZ Stadium on Friday evening, it's not hard to picture plenty of points being scored.

It's picturing the Eels being competitive that's the issue. Therefore, even without Johnson and Tuivasa-Sheck siding with the Model's early prediction and taking the Warriors at +1.5 is the way to go.

It might be difficult to some, but it's time to start trusting the new-look Warriors.