Footy Forensics - Hawks v Crows

I might be (am) in the minority here but my spidey senses are seriously tingling towards the Crows upsetting the Hawks at the MCG Saturday night! 

With weather forecast for Melbourne Saturday it is difficult to predict whether this will be a free-flowing affair or really rain-effected, but certain things can be gleaned regardless of weather. 

Stats Insider have the Hawks winning this by 14pts 88-74. The Crows have been playing some horrid football over the last fortnight while Hawthorn's win over Port three weeks ago stacks up very well given Port's win over Richmond last round. 

Form (and Stats Insider) are trying to tell me not to overthink this and to just take the Hawks but there are plenty of intangibles to add to this story before we can get to the ending. 

Of the 10,000 simulations run by the Stats Insider model, Hawthorn comes out on top 66% of games making them slight value plays at the H2H market at the $1.52 price. 

Hawks have dropped Tim O'Brien and brought in a runner in Langford. This game is Shaun Burgoyne's 350th game of AFL footy so you can absolutely guarantee that Hawthorn will be desperate to get their champion a win on his milestone match. 

Enter Adelaide who have dropped Murphy, Fogarty and Ellis-Yolmen whilst also losing Brown to injury. Brown is a decent out particularly when playing a team with Puopolo and Bruest in the forward line. 

But here's the thing - Adelaide sit 6-6 and have the bye next week and that is far from where they will have expected to be at the start of the season. 

You can guarantee that coach Don Pyke has starred into the eyes of every single Crow this week, demanding they head into the break on a winning note. 

Hawthorn are humming along inside the 8 and while they will want to win for Silk, that desire is trumped every day by desperation which is what I expect Adelaide to bring to Melbourne tonight. 

My bet of the game is the Crows with the +12.5pt start. Taking a two goal line on a team as desperate as I expect Adelaide to be is usually a pretty safe bet. Personally I can see the Crows winning outright but by far I think the value is taking them at the Line. 

It is worth noting that Stats Insider does not see this value, giving the slightest of edges to the Hawks to hold the line. 

Any weather will obviously impact this market severely so I am avoiding making too many predictions this far out from bounce. Make sure you check back in on the Match Page at Stats Insider prior to bounce to get the most updated info from the model. 

If the rain stays away I can see this being tight early and breaking open into a high-scoring shoot-out late, but any rain will keep this nice and low given the heat I expect around the footy all game. 

It is a very tricky game with plenty of intangibles to add into the mix and believe me I'd love to be on Silk for his 350th but I just keep coming back to how desperate the Crows simply must be. This is almost season-defining for them. 

Adelaide but only just. 

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