Footy Forensics: Knights v Eels

It's not a blockbuster of a game, but both the Knights and Eels will be approaching it as must win.

The Knights are attempting to keep afloat and stay within touching distance of the Top 8 while the Eels are desperately trying to lift themselves off the bottom of the table.

Mitchell Pearce's return will give Newcastle a boost, but he's not enough for the Stats Insider Model to tip them to win. 

Through 10,000 simulations of Knights v Eels, the Model has the current holder of the wooden spoon winning 57% of the time.

If the Eels are to win, it's going to come on the back off a dominant forwards performance. Nathan Brown, in particular, is the one to get them on the front foot. He's somebody that will lick his lips in the build-up to this one given Newcastle concedes more metres than any other side in the competition.

He looks good to run for over 200 metres and if he does, the Eels at $1.80 to win is great value.

Pearce will make his long-awaited return for the Knights and is sure to help them in attack, but there's only so much he can do behind what is most likely going to be a beaten pack. 

Therefore, Newcastle's +1.5 Line is nothing to get excited about either.

The Model has the Knights covering in just 44% of the 10,000 simulated matches.

Adding to the attractive $1.80 head-to-head odds, the Eels look good to cover the Line as well.

They might be at the bottom of the competition in scoring at just 14.8 points per game, but Parramatta has started to look better in attack. Clint Gutherson is the key playing from fullback and with both Mitchell Moses and Corey Norman named in the halves and Kaysa Pritchard a chance of returning, the Eels spine should produce the goods against this turnstile Knights defence.

As a result of giving up so many metres every week, the Knights also concede the most points in the NRL at 26.8 points per game.

Their named backline of Nick Meaney, Ken Sio, Sione Mata'utia, Corey Denniss and Shaun Kenny-Dowall does absolutely nothing to instil any confidence in the Knights scoring points or stopping them from coming the other way in this one.

Considering the poor attack and defence of both teams, this Total could go either way.

Set at 40.5 points for this one, the Model likes the Under in 54% of matches. 

The Under definitely warrants a lean. Neither side have set the world on fire in attack this season and without Ponga, it's tough to see the Knights scoring more than 14-16 points. As improved as the Eels attack has looked of late, they'd be going well to score the 24-26 points to send the Total Over.

Consistency has been an issue for the Knights and Eels all season, so it's no surprise to see the Model display three 'No Bet' suggestions for this one.

The Model might not be on board far enough to hand out any stars, but the Eels at the Line is a strong option while their H2H price is worth taking too.

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