Footy Forensics: Maroons v Blues Game III

The build-up to Game III has been mild in comparison to the first two.

As far as talk amongst the fans goes, discussions over whether or not this dead rubber should even go ahead have sparked more emotion than the game itself. 

Nevertheless, the Maroons and Blues will do battle on Wednesday and we need to have a winner.

Having already won the series, New South Wales are coming in at $1.67 to complete the sweep. It would be the first time they get the broom out since 2000 should they finish on the right side of the ledger.

Queensland, on the other hand, are just trying to keep pace with this high-flying Blues side.

Having dominated the last 12 series, the Maroons aren't quite sure what to do with themselves and perhaps a result of the reshuffle to the team list, they're at $2.25 to win.

Jarrod Wallace has been dropped to the bench while Dylan Napa isn't in the 17 at all. The latter has been replaced by Tim Glasby with Jai Arrow and Josh Papalii taking their place in the starting lineup. 

Greg Inglis is a big out for Queensland, but Corey Oates will give them plenty coming out of their own end. Depending on who you speak to, Oates should have been there for the first two games as well.

But the big change - the one that has people doubting the Maroons at $2.25 despite playing at home - is the inclusion of Daly Cherry-Evans. He comes in for Ben Hunt who moves to the bench after a shocker in Game II.

Given Cherry-Evans' form in for Manly, it's a strange decision from Kevin Walters. Hunt is a little unlucky to have lost his spot with a hit to his confidence inevitable. Now they bring in Cherry-Evans who hasn't been training with the squad this series and is a guy that former teammates have famously struggled with.

There's no doubting it's a big risk for Walters and is enough to lean with the Blues at the H2H market.

For those looking to get behind Queensland, the line is where you do it.

The +2.5 Line is just enough to get interested and depending on how well you do your shopping, a +4 Line is available out there.

This should be a game that stays close. Queensland's pack was arguably stronger in Game II, but they didn't have the composure out wide - in the spots Johnathan Thurston and Cooper Cronk would normally have stood - to get the job done.

Queensland may not have the composure again, but at home in front of what should still be a bumper crowd is enough reason to have a little more faith this time around.

There's also an argument that Kalyn Ponga's unavailability might be a good thing. 

Walters crowbarred him into Game II when it wasn't necessary. The Maroons were flying, Billy Slater was on fire, and we looked set to go to a decider. Then Ponga came on and it put a halt to everything.

He wasn't bad, but his place in the side disrupted things.

In Game III, we should see a lot more of Josh McGuire, in particular. So long as he is in the middle, the Maroons will be able to match the Blues set for set.

With the battle in the middle close if not won by Queensland, there's good reason to get on them at the +2.5 line. However, wait it out before kickoff and let the locals in Sydney bump the line up as they jump on their side as favourites.

Knowing dead rubbers are more high-scoring than meaningful Origin games, seeing the Total at 36.5 was instantly appealing. 

There has been an average of 38.7 points scored per game in the 17 dead rubber games compared to 30.9 points per game when the series in undecided. 

With what we've seen out of the Blues so far, and knowing these games tend to open up more than others, there are plenty of points to be scored in this one.

And while the Maroons haven't been prolific in attack throughout the first two games, playing at home against a Blues side that might not be as intense as what they've dealt with so far, looks good to run in a few tries. 

The lean is with the Over, and it might be the best play of the night.

There's value in the Maroons at $2.25, but the question marks over how well they come together after the reshuffle takes away some of the confidence. Depending on what number you can get, Queensland at the Line is the better option. 

In a dead rubber that most fans care more about the health of their club players than the result, it's easier to cheer for a high-scoring game.

Celebrate every try and take the Over at 36.5 points.

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