Footy Forensics: Panthers v Cowboys

Remember when the North Queensland Cowboys were the Cinderella story of the NRL?

After relying on the lowly Bulldogs to pull off the upset to qualify for finals football, the Cowboys completed upset after upset until going down to the Storm in the Grand Final.

The assumption was that by adding Jordan McLean and welcoming back a healthy Johnathan Thurston and Matthew Scott, the Cows would contend for the premiership without having to execute a near-miracle to make it happen.

Boy, how misguided was that more than justifiable assumption?

Now 2-6 and preparing to face the second-on-the-ladder Panthers in Bathurst, it's close to panic stations for the Cowboys.

But fear not North Queenslanders, the Stats Insider Model is predicting a reprieve.

For a week, anyway.

After 10,000 simulations of Panthers v Cowboys, the SI Model has the visitors coming out on top in 60% of the matches.

Despite their awful run of form, the Cowboys jagging a win isn't the most outrageous idea out there.

All it would take for the Cowboys to get themselves out of the rut they're in is an in-form Michael Morgan. We saw last season how far he can carry them on his back. However, so far this season, he has buckled beneath the pressure.

Being switched to fullback for a spell last week, Morgan reaccustomed himself with running the football. If he keeps that going now that he's back in the halves tonight, we might just see the Cowboys back at their best.

If Morgan is running and creating chances, the Cowboys H2H at $2 seems like it would have you printing money.

But don't jump on it too quick, the SI Model has a better option.

Coming in at a 70% clip throughout the 10,000 simulated matches, getting on the Cowboys +1.5 Line is the way to go.

Take the extra 1.5 points and run.

Given the injuries the Panthers are carrying, they are vulnerable. In particular, on the edge. Part-time centre Isaah Yeo is playing a position wider than he normally would, but that's not the main area of concern. The two wingers, Christian Crichton and Tyrone Phillips, only have 12 first-grade games between them.

No strangers to playing close games this season and in Bathurst historically, the +1.5 points you can get with the Cowboys could be the difference.

With so much uncertainty around which Cowboys team will turn up and whether or not the Panthers can produce points with a jumbled backline, the Total market is a no-go for me. 

This game could go in so many different directions, that 37.5 points could be gone by halftime if both of these sides get on a roll.

It's one you want to trust the model.

A big fan of the Cowboys +1.5 Line, the model is handing out two stars sandwiched between two No Bet's on the H2H and Total.

Initially leaning towards North Queensland to win straight up, the Model has convinced me enough to play it safe and take the head start.