Footy Forensics: Panthers v Dragons

We get a nice little entrée with Warriors v Rabbitohs before the main meal on Saturday night.

First v second.

Dragons v Panthers.

It's set to be a beauty with the Stats Insider Model taking it a step further and tipping an upset.

If we're getting the Model's predicted 21-20 score, we will undoubtedly be talking about this game being one of the best of the season when it's all said and done.

Even if it's not that close, seeing the Panthers upset the premiership favourites will do.

The Model likes our chances with 52% of the 10,000 simulated matches going the way of the home side.

That home ground advantage will play a big role in this one and might be enough to paper over a couple of the tiny cracks the Panthers do have in their game.

It's those cracks that have the bookmakers sending Penrith out as $2.17 underdogs at the time of writing. 

Nathan Cleary has 80 minutes underneath him, but his combination with James Maloney is still fresh. Maloney was the man in charge last week and it worked well. The issue they face is the transition period where Maloney hands back control of the side to Cleary.

If that's this week, there could be a few teething issues.

Additionally, Penrith is a little frail on the edges.

They've had players coming in an out of the centre and wing spots all season and while Dean Whare and Tyrone Peachey offer some stability in the centres this week, Tyrone Phillips and Christian Crichton are still very early into their first-grade careers.

St George, on the other hand, has started the same 13 players each and every week this season with very few areas you can point to as a potential weakness.

Their attack is the best in the competition scoring 27.2 points per game while their defence is the stingiest conceding just 14.9 points per game.

If they don't out-muscle the Panthers pack, the Dragons will match them - at worst. From there, the superior backline has the edge which makes their $1.73 price an obvious option.

The Model points us to the Line, though.

By covering the +1.5 in 58% of the 10,000 simulated matches, siding with the Panthers at the Line is the suggested play.

If the game is as close as everybody expects it to be along with the model tipping them head-to-head 52% of the time, Penrith getting +1.5 points at home is a steal.

However, as much of steal as the +1.5 may be, the Total looks low with the Model all over the Over 36.5 points.

Despite being the top-two teams in the NRL when it comes to conceding the fewest points, this match has high-scoring written all over it.

As the last Origin trial for many of hopefuls ahead of Monday's announcement, there will be plenty of intent to impress through attack.

Form, talent, and the overall occasion of a top of the table clash lends itself to an attacking match and one that should get Over the 36.5 Total.

With the H2H and Line options containing more questions than answers, this is a game where it's best to just throw your hands up and trust the model.