Footy Forensics: Panthers v Tigers

It says Penrith Panthers v Wests Tigers on the ticket stub, but all the talk this week has been about Ivan Cleary v Nathan Cleary.

Ivan's Tigers are looking to keep building on their hot start to the season and stay in the Top 8 while Nathan returns to the Panthers following a seven-week stint on the sidelines.

Second on the ladder despite being without their best player, Penrith have exceeded expectations. However, the Stats Insider Model isn't expecting a huge improvement from the Panthers with Cleary back.

Through 10,000 simulations of the match, the Model can't split them.

If seeing the potential there for a draw doesn't excite you enough, the head-to-head odds will.

Wests are coming in at a whopping $2.58 to win tonight with the Model also tipping the upset with a slight lean towards them finishing ahead on the scoreboard.

It's not too hard to see a Tigers win coming to fruition when you look at the team lists alongside the form guide.

Penrith's pack has been brilliant this season. It's the reason they've been able to stay afloat while Anthony Griffin tinkers with his backline in response to the ever-growing injury list. 

This week, Penrith have Dallin Watene-Zelezniak at fullback; a position he's only ever played eight times before.

On the wings are Christian Crichton and Tyrone Phillips with their combined 16-games of first-grade experience.

Tyrone Peachy and the question marks around his defence continues to jump around positions to land in the centres this week. 

Dean Whare is the only outside back that would be first-choice had the club not been hit so hard by the injury bug. 

So, with an inexperienced backline and a halves combination that has still only played three games together, Penrith's attack will be doing well to fire.

That plays right into the hands of the Tigers and their growing +6.5 Line, just as they begin to recapture their form in defence.

Wests defence is what allowed them to start the season so well and after three weeks of it going AWOL, the scrambling nature in which they cover the field without the ball returned last week.

It's as though they forgot what made them great and needed a reminder.

Provided they haven't suffered any memory loss throughout the week, the Tigers look good to cover the +6.5 Line.

The Model has them covering in 72% of the 10,000 simulated matches and with that, the Under comes into play.

The 39.5 Total is high no matter which way you look at it.

West is either going to turn up defensively and make this an arm-wrestle, or Penrith will run all over them to put up a score while conceding very few points themselves. 

The Model only has 55% of the simulated matches going Under, but there could be a lot more value in that depending on which Tigers team turns up.

Regardless, the Under isn't the best bet for this game, anyway.

Liking the look of the Tigers defence up against the make-shift Panthers backline, the Model is all over Wests +6.5 Line. 

However, the Model's tip goes against the public and line movement that has occurred throughout the week.

Penrith's Line sat at -4.5 before some heavy public backing saw it blow out to -6.5 by Thursday morning.

The public being so eager to pile on one team or another may strengthen or weaken a punters confidence in a bet. In this case, we're cheering for the money to keep coming in on the Panthers to offer up as much value as possible in the Tigers at the Line.