Footy Forensics: Panthers v Warriors

After witnessing an 82-point thriller last night, this one is going to struggle to live up to the expectations set for Round 17.

It's got Origin-affected nightmare written all over it.

For the Panthers, at least.

They've been punished by injuries all year and just as they started to get healthy, State of Origin pinches their captain, superstar young half, and X-factor on the edge.

It's no surprise that through 10,000 simulations of Friday night's match, the Model has the Panthers falling to the Warriors 60% of the time.

Penrith's $2.44 is the value play with the Model's predictions, but it's tough to see it paying off.

The team lists give us a pretty clear indication of why the Model has the Warriors winning 60% of the simulated matches.

The Panthers are without their star halves pairing in James Maloney and Nathan Cleary. Maloney, in particular, has been instrumental in their success this season with his cool head getting them across the line in close games more than once.

Then there is Tyrone Peachey - the pocket rocket. When the chips are down, the Panthers can throw him the ball and wait for him to create something special. It's never a surprise when he does.

All three of Penrith's absent players are game-breakers. They can all single-handedly win football games.

The Warriors, on the other hand, still have their match-winners in the side. Shaun Johnson is healthy again, Roger Tuivasa-Sheck is quite possibly the best fullback in the NRL, and Isaac Luke is playing like he's in a contract year - which he is. 

By no means are Bunty Afoa and Tohu Harris not significant pieces the Warriors will sorely miss, but they don't have the impact on a result Maloney, Cleary and Peachey do. 

With the best of their best suiting up, the Warriors to win is a fair expectation. That $1.59 price isn't all that appealing, though.

However, the -2.5 Line is.

The Model isn't jumping all over the Warriors at -2.5, but it's the play to make.

Robbed last week, the Warriors are in good form and were a competent touch judge away from riding a three-game winning streak into this one. No team has performed better on the road (6-1) in 2018 while the Warriors have leapt almost every hurdle this season they'd have historically tripped over.

The signs are there for a Warriors win - a good one at that.

A good Warriors win tends to be a result of a considerable output in attack. While the Model has the Warriors winning 60% of the time along with a slight lean towards the -2.5 Line, it's not convinced enough points will be piled on to finish Over the 39.5 Total.

Under 39.5 points gets a strong lean from the Model, but it's one to tread with caution.

There's not going to be a shortage of Warriors offloads, and should they stick, the points will come. Likewise, as underdogs, the Panthers will no doubt chance their arm a little more than usual.

Even with the players missing, both sides are intact across the backline and capable of finding the stripe.

The Model doesn't like the Under enough to point to is as a value punt, but it doesn't like anything in this one.

It's a straight flush of 'No Bets' from the Model, which is understandable.

If making this game interesting with a punt is a must, the Warriors at -2.5 is the way to go. Their best players are available, they've been brilliant on the road, and the form guide is in their favour regardless of the Origin outs.

To the cynical Warriors fan, those all sound like reasons to fade them and take the Panthers. This bunch is different, though. They can be trusted.

Warriors to win is the cautious approach; taking them at -2.5 pays for dinner.

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