Footy Forensics: Rabbitohs v Sharks

Oh, what could have been.

We've got two of the form teams of the competition with a combined 10 wins on the trot going head-to-head in this one, but a large chunk of the Rabbitohs best won't be there.

Greg Inglis, Dane Gagai, Damian Cook and Angus Crichton have all been selected to play in State of Origin Game I and won't suit up for Souths this week. Cronulla, on the other hand, only lose Valentine Holmes.

With so many first-choice Bunnies absent, the Stats Insider Model is tipping a Sharks win.

In typical Cronulla fashion, they're going to make sure the win isn't by much. By loving nothing more than to make things difficult for themselves, the Sharks are sure to give the Rabbitohs a sniff.

A sniff is all they'll get on most occasions.

Through 10,000 simulations of Rabbitohs v Sharks, the Model is big on the Sharks head-to-head at $1.68.

With the form the Sharks have along with a rare amount of continuity for this time of year, getting on them looks like the way to go.

Andrew Fifita returns this week to rejoin one of the strongest packs in the NRL.

Luke Lewis and Paul Gallen are former Origin legends while Wade Graham would have most likely been playing in Game I this season had it not been for a few injuries.

Matt Prior is a solid performer and Joseph Paulo, Ava Seumanufagai and Jayson Bukuya will always do a job off the bench.

The pack is there for Cronulla, and it needs to be. Even with a couple of outs, the Souths middle is still one of the best going around.

As long as the three Burgess brothers are there, the Rabbitohs are going to move up the field.

Where the Sharks have the advantage across the field is out the back.

Souths are sending out a brand new centres pairing while the combined number of games amongst their outside backs falls below 100. 

The Cronulla backline hardly screams points, but they're familiar with each other which gives them a distinct advantage - in defence, especially. 

The advantage is only small and that's reflected in the Model's prediction at the Line.

Swallowing -2.5 points, the lean goes slightly towards the Sharks.

With their history of keeping games closer than they need to be, though, the -2.5 Line is enough to make anybody nervous.

It's in the Total Points market where we can find some confidence.

With 59% of the simulated matches falling Under 39.5 points, the Model has it pinpointed as a value punt.

With so much of the game expected to be played-out in between the two 20-metre lines, points are at a premium.

As the sixth and seventh-best defences in the competition, the two sides are no slouches defensively. And when a battle in the middle is as tight as this, it's unlikely either side generates enough go-forward to pile up points.

Both teams have lost their best-attacking weapons to Origin this week, so celebrate defence and side with the Under.

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