Footy Forensics: Rabbitohs v Storm

The Rabbitohs host the Storm in a top of the table clash that could end up deciding who takes out the minor premiership for 2018 on Friday night.

It's a blockbuster that will command plenty of attention from fans and punters across the NRL.

On an eight-game winning streak and coming off a convincing 44-10 win over the Raiders, the Storm are in good form and the favourites for this one.

However, the Stats Insider Model has other ideas.

It's the Rabbitohs that come out on top following 10,000 simulations of the match.

Given Souths last two games, it will come as a surprise to many that the Model has them beating the defending premiers by four points on Friday night.

But those last two games aren't the Rabbitohs. Their loss to the Tigers certainly isn't as they looked to run around the defence rather than continue to apply the game plan that had won them the nine games prior.

It took them 50 minutes to get back into the swing of things against the Eels last week, but the Rabbitohs look good to kick on from there.

Winning 58% of the simulated matches for a +12% edge over average market probabilities, the Model is all over the Rabbitohs head-to-head.

If they're going to do it, Souths need to go back to what has worked in the past.

Souths weren't prepared to do that hard yards against the Tigers and to a lesser extent, the Eels; they've admitted as much. Instead of laying the foundations and looking towards working the middle through the Burgess brothers and Damien Cook, they shifted the ball wide early and often.

Now, they do lead the NRL in shifts left (13.6 per game) and are sixth in shifts right (11.1 per game) to complete the second-most passes (228 per game). Throwing the ball around isn't anything new and it's the reason their attack is so dangerous.

However, they sent the ball left 16 times and right 17 times without their usual emphasis on the middle of the ground against the Tigers. It looked much of the same for 50 minutes against the Eels too.

Up against one of the competitions best defensive teams in the Storm, the Rabbits can't afford to simply throw it around and hope to break through. No team concedes fewer than Melbourne's 3.2 linebreaks per game.

Despite Souths and their scratchy form, the Model likes them to get back on track this week.

That brings a lot of value to the Line.

With massive 70% of simulated matches ending with the Rabbitohs covering the +2 Line, the Model has identified a significant +20% edge against average market probabilities.

It's going to have everything to do with how Souths approach the game in attack, but we can be confident Anthony Seibold has been preaching their game plan all week. 

The Storm are more than capable of piling up the points themselves to be fourth in the competition in scoring at 24 points per game - just 0.1 points per game behind the Rabbitohs.

Melbourne's form suggests they'll find the line on Friday night and should Souths also find theirs, this game is likely to go way Over the 36.5 points.

The Model has this one going Over in 59% of simulated matches to offer up another considerable edge against average market probabilities. 

It may be a night game, but the Stats Insider smileys have their sunnies on.

It's a full house of suggested bets from the Model for Rabbitohs v Storm.

We're going to need to see the Rabbitohs produce the sort of form they did while going unbeaten in May and June, but the Model is brimming with confidence.

Back the Bunnies to at least go close and cover the +2 on Friday night.

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