Footy Forensics: Raiders v Cowboys

This is it for the Raiders.

If they're serious about making a run at the Top 8 by Round 25, they need to dispose of the Cowboys comfortably. None of this waiting until the last seven minutes to score three tries to beat a poor Bulldogs gear.

This one needs to be won from siren to siren.

As far as the Stat Insider Model is concerned, the Raiders shouldn't have any problems. 

The form of the Raiders may change every 20 minutes, but for the most part, they have performed better than the Cowboys.

North Queensland hasn't been able to buy a trick recently. The losses have piled up, but only at an average of four points per game over their last seven defeats. Winning is a foreign concept to this team and when it gets to the final stages of a game, they don't know what to do.

Canberra are hardly brilliant finishes either. They've chucked away seven leads over the last 20 minutes this season. 

Despite the ways Canberra has found ways to lose this season, the Model likes them to win in 64% of the 10,000 simulated matches.

That rate puts the value with the Raiders at $1.52, but tread carefully.

When it comes to the Raiders in 2018, you can never be sure of anything.

Despite the L's, the Cowboys haven't been bad. They've come close and aren't far away from turning one of those defeats into a victory.

We saw what the extra rest at this time of year did to Cameron Smith last week. There's a good chance a week off and the earlier-than-expected retirement that's fast approaching is enough to trigger a Johnathan Thurston masterclass.

If he's to do it, Jason Taumalolo will be leading the way through the middle. His matchup against Josh Papalii will play a significant role in the result and with the Canberra lock backing up for Origin on Wednesday night, it's safe to assume Taumalolo plays the better of the two. 

When you've got a fresh Thurston and Taumalolo running out there, $2.63 for the Cowboys to win is something worth getting behind.

In terms of the Line, the Model isn't interested in either option. 

With the 10,000 simulations split down the guts, the Line is a no-go for the Model.

But, and it's not always easy to second-guess the Model, the Cowboys at +5.5 deserves serious consideration.

The end of the 2017 season was enough proof that Taumalolo can put the team on his back and run far enough for victory. A fortnight to rest his legs following a massive last 12 months is worth a few points to the Cowboys.

Enough to warrant a punt at the +5.5 Line.

While the Model isn't interested in the Line, it's all over the Under in this one.

With 61% of the simulated matches falling below the 42.5 Total, the Under qualifies as an SI value punt. 

It's a good play in a match that will see both sides rely heavily on their forward packs. 

Injuries to the Raiders outside backs and the inconsistencies of their halves make it hard to get excited about them racking up points. Meanwhile, the Cowboys haven't scored many all season with their one-dimensional style and shape too easy for opposing sides to defend.

The 42.5 Total is remarkably high and the market to look at in this one.

Canberra to win at $1.52 is the H2H option but isn't one to take confidently.

North Queensland at the +5.5 Line feels better if we're after a punt on the result.

But in a game that looks set to be an arm-wrestle between two sides with much of their gameplan centred around dominance through the middle, the Under is where to go.

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