Footy Forensics: Roosters v Cowboys

Looking at this fixture during the preseason, not a single person tipped the Cowboys to come into it from 15th on the ladder.

The most disappointing team of 2018 goes up against a genuine premiership contender and perhaps the hottest team in the NRL right now in the Roosters.

As most would expect, the Stats Insider Model is tipping a big win for the Chooks.

There is no side in the competition looking better than the Roosters at the moment.

Already in possession of the number one defence, Sydney's attack has started to catch up scoring 92 points over the last fortnight.

Winners of seven from eight throughout June and July, the Model has little doubt they won't start August with another two competition points.

The Roosters may be winning 72% of the 10,000 simulated matches, but the value lies with the Cowboys.

The Model has identified a +5% edge against average market probabilities in the Cowboys head-to-head price at the time of writing.

While there won't many confident in putting their hard-earned cash on the Cowboys to win given what they've dished up so far in 2018, their +12.5 Line offers up an intriguing option. 

Sydney's left side has been in scintillating form throughout their rapid rise up the ladder.

Latrell Mitchell, in particular, has been causing havoc for opposition defences. However, he might not get the high-quality ball he's accustomed to out on the left edge this week with Luke Keary missing with a knee injury. Back rower, Ryan Mattherson, plays his first game in the halves since 2016 in his place.

With Sydney's most potent attacking option down on strength, North Queensland will be looking to their middle to compete in this one.

Running for 171.1 metres per game, Jason Taumalolo is always reliable. He does his best to carry the Cowboys as far as he can, but will have some help this week.

Both Matt Scott and Jordan McLean are a week healthier as they continue their comeback from injury. McLean found 99 metres in his first game back last week and is a good chance at going further in this one.

With a bit of help around the barnstorming Taumalolo in the middle of the field, the Cowboys can do enough damage to at least give themselves a sniff.

Ultimately, their inability to find points will be the biggest hurdle.

Scoring only 16.1 points per game to be 14th in the NRL in attack, the Cowboys don't ask many questions with their predictable and repetitive shape. Against a defence that leaks only 14.8 points per game in this one, North Queensland's fortunes with the ball in hand are unlikely to change.

It's that combination of Sydney's elite defence and North Queensland's flaccid attack that has the Model leaning towards the Under in 54% of simulated matches.

With the Cowboys occupying 52% of the possession per game on average this season, they see a lot of the football. No other side makes more than their 231 passes per game either. Given how much time they spend with the ball and how little they use it, North Queensland aren't likely to contribute enough points to send this one past 41.5 for the match. 

The Cowboys H2H gets a lean with the value on offer, but it's difficult to see it coming through. Backing them to keep it close at the +12.5 Line might be the better option there.

However, with the Cowboys reliably poor in attack and the Roosters without their first-choice five-eighth, it's the Under at 41.5 points the Model likes most.

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