Footy Forensics: Roosters v Dragons

The NRL has saved the best for last in Round 20 with the in-form Roosters hosting the premiership contending Dragons.

After a slow start to the season, the Roosters have begun to come right when it matters. Their defence is the best in the competition, and their attack is slowly realising it's potential.

The Dragons, on the other hand, are struggling to get around the Origin-sized roadblock that stalled their season. They need a win here to lay the foundations for a strong run into September.

As far as the Stats Insider Model is concerned, construction on those foundations will be delayed another week.

Given the quality of the two sides, the expectation is this one will be close.

Both have elite halves combinations capable of either closing out a game, or finding a way to win it late.

There's talent spread right across the field which justifies the Model's very small lean towards the Roosters Head-to-Head.

Despite the Roosters winning 54% of the 10,000 simulated matches, the value lies with the Dragons.

The Model has identified a +3% edge over average market probabilities at the time of writing.

A lot of that will have to do with their all-NSW back row and international prop rotation.

Tyson Frizell, Tariq Sims and Jack de Belin make up the best back row in the NRL. Propped up by Paul Vaughan, James Graham and Leeson Ah Mau in front of them, you're struggling to find a better forward pack across the competition.

With 1,567 running metres per game, the Dragons are second in yardage.

The pack does the hard graft which allows the likes of Gareth Widdop (3rd in linebreak assists and 4th in try assists) and Ben Hunt (6th in try assists and 10th in linebreak assists) to unleash their potent backline.

Matt Dufty (11), Euan Aitken (10) and Nene Macdonald (9) are all inside the top 15 for tries scored this season.

The Model may not like the Dragons H2H, but it's tipping their attack to score enough points to cover the +3.5 Line against the NRL's best defensive team.

No team concedes fewer points than Sydney's 14.6 points per game.

However, the Model likes St George to find enough points to cover the spread in 56% of the 10,000 simulated matches. That's good enough for a +6% edge against average market probabilities and has been identified as value punt for this one.

Despite the fact the Roosters attack is building and coming off a 56-point outing last week, the Model is leaning towards the Under in 55% of matches.

In a match between two of the top five attacking teams in the competition, it may come as a surprise to see so many games falling Under the 37.5 total.

With this one expected to have a finals feel to it, though, the opening exchanges where teams attempt to play themselves into the match may extend further than the usual 10-15 minutes.

It's also worth noting 13 of St George Illawarra's 18 games this season have finished Under the total.

Like the Dragons and their +3.5 Line, the Under at 37.5 points gets the nod from the Model.

With the Model identifying a +6% edge at the Line, the Dragons at +3.5 is a strong option.

But having hit at over 67% on the Over/Under market so far this season, the Model's suggestion of taking the Under at 37.5 points might be the better way to go.

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