Footy Forensics: Roosters v Knights

Round 3 of the season offers up a Grand Final rematch, two 0-2 teams expected to play finals football going head-to-head, and the giant-killing Tigers playing David in another matchup against an NRL Goliath.

But none of them carries the intrigue and anticipation that precedes Roosters vs. Knights on Sunday afternoon.

Mitchell Pearce takes his former-Roosters teammates Aidan Guerra, Shaun Kenny-Dowall and Connor Watson back to Allianz Stadium to kick off what might be the NRL's newest rivalry.

The young Knights have claimed back-to-back wins, but this one is their biggest test so far.

Coming up against a stacked Sydney side that started to look like they were putting it together last week, the SI Model doesn't Newcastle's chances.

Through 10,000 simulations, the Model has the Knights coming up short a lot more often than not.

With the playing roster the tri-colours are sending out this week, it's no shock to see the Model favour them H2H.

For as good as Kalyn Ponga has looked, how comfortably Connor Watson has picked up the role as first-choice five-eighth, and how Pearce has steadied the ship, the Knights are up against tried and tested talent this week.

The majority of the Roosters 17 has either played - or is one day expected to - representative football.

To put it simply: the Chooks are stacked.

As far as the SI Model is concerned, it's not whether or not the Roosters win, it's by how much.

At the time of writing, the home side is covering the -8.5 spread 53% of the time.

If the Knights are to lose the match, and lose it by a lot, it will come at the hands of their middlemen.

Despite winning their opening two games of the season, only four teams have conceded more running metre's than Newcastle's 2,936 metres through two rounds. Not only that, the Raiders were able to complete 38 play-the-balls in fewer than three seconds last week.

The Knights, on the other hand, only completed eight play-the-balls in under three seconds and are ranked 13th in running metres at 2,486 metres.

Newcastle has got away with being average in the middle so far, but it's looking like it will go pearshaped this week against an exceptional Sydney forward pack.

With the go forward they will get through the middle and the elite playmakers and finishers they have out the back, the Roosters look good to win - and win big.