Footy Forensics: Roosters v Panthers

Are the Roosters finally starting to click?

The question has been asked and answered a couple of times already this season.

As preseason premiership favourites, the Roosters haven't come close to living up to the hype. Their 9-5 record leaves them 6th on the ladder, but they're a couple of steps behind the genuine contenders. One of them being the Panthers.

A win here for the Roosters would finally give Roosters fans the answer they've been looking for: Yes.

The Stats Insider Model comes with good news.

Through 10,000 simulations of the match, the Roosters come out on top 57% of the time.

Surprisingly, they are the bookmaker's favourites and despite being a few rungs behind the Panthers on the ladder, the Roosters are decent value at $1.87.

Penrith might be one of the hottest teams in the NRL, but the boys from Bondi are starting to gel.

The forwards, in particular, have played a significant role in the teams overall improvement. For Cooper Cronk and James Tedesco - Sydney's two big signings - to earn their keep and produce in attack, they need a platform to build from.

Only over the last six weeks have Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Dylan Napa, Boyd Cordner and Sio Siua Taukeiaho have lifted their game to see the Roosters win five of their last six.

That's not to say they turn up this week and dominate the Panthers, though.

There aren't many better packs in the NRL than Penrith's - if any.

Raegan Campbell-Gillard was called into State of Origin this year while Trent Merrin was also a chance. Isaah Yeo has been typically brilliant alongside James Fisher-Harris who has come along leaps and bounds this season. 

They have plenty there and it should ensure we see a physical battle in the centre-third in this one. 

With two strong packs going head-to-head we can expect a close game, and the Model is all over it. It can barely split them at the Line with the Roosters at -1.5 getting the slightest of leans.

Given what we saw last week with Penrith coming back to allow Nathan Cleary to slot the match-winning field goal in their 23-22 win over Canberra, the +1.5 Line deserves a look. 

It's difficult to look past the Panthers to win at $1.97, but taking the headstart is the best of both worlds if the game is as close as the model projects it to be. 

In terms of the Total, the Model likes the Over at 37.5 points.

Both sides possess plenty of points and even if it is a match that features slow stages and a bit of back and forth in the middle, the outside backs don't need many opportunities to find the line.

Latrell Mitchell and Tyrone Peachey are two of the most exciting talents around and are capable of creating something out of nothing. Close games like these cater to them perfectly.

By finding it so difficult to split the two sides across the board, it's no surprise to see the Model steer clear of this game.

Despite the lean being towards the Roosters both H2H and at the Line, the Panthers at $1.97 and +1.5 is impossible to ignore. 

They're up there with Souths as the form teams of the competition while Sydney's inconsistencies have been well-documented all year.

Penrith has played at an elite level on both sides of the ball to boast the third-best attack (23.1 points per game) and strongest defence (14.6 points conceded per game) of all 16 teams in the NRL.

With their consistency and the chance of the bounce-back factor playing a role tonight, Panthers +1.5 is the tip for this one.

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