Footy Forensics: Roosters v Storm

The Roosters and Storm head to Adelaide for this one and based on their recent form, a repeat of last years 25-24 Sydney win is a real chance.

Sydney has finally started to put things together to have won four in a row and six of their last seven. The improvement in form has come on the back off a lift in production from the forwards, but the Roosters will be without Boyd Cordner and Jared Waerea-Hargreaves for this one.

Meanwhile, Melbourne is in another one of their purple patches. They've been uncharacteristically inconsistent this season, but have won their last two matches by 16+ points. Billy Slater's return should be enough to make up for the loss of Felise Kaufusi this week. 

With their talismanic fullback returning to the side, the Storm are favourites with the bookmakers and the Stats Insider Model.

With the result expected to be so close, the Roosters at $2.29 are an attractive option.

Their form warrants some confidence and if anybody is going to expose the weaknesses of Slater and Cameron Smith - if there are any - it's Cooper Cronk.

He's yet to have an overly significant impact on the side so far, but it's games like these that are the reason the Roosters picked him up.

Nevertheless, the Model isn't convinced with 57% of the simulated matches going the way of the Storm.

The Model is leaning the right way, but the value lies with the Roosters and their $2.29 price.

While the Storm at $1.66 is worth considering, there is a better option.

The Model likes the Storm to cover their -2 Line in 56% of the simulated matches.

The worry for the Roosters is their pack.

Both Cordner and Waerea-Hargreaves had started to play themselves into form in recent weeks, and it's no surprise the Chooks began to pick up wins as a result. 

Waerea-Hargreaves, in particular, has been a big part of the turnaround.

He averaged just 97 running metres per game throughout the opening seven weeks. Having not finished a season averaging less than a 100 since 2012, they were worrying signs. However, he's picked up 135 metres per game over Sydney's last seven (6W, 1L) to spearhead their revival.

Without him, the Roosters risk losing what has become one of their greatest strengths, despite the Storm not being especially strong through the middle. 

Melbourne is 14th in running metres per game and dead last in distance per set.

All that being said, the prospects of neither side holding a significant advantage through the middle hasn't turned the Model off a shootout.

It's big on the Over with 58% of the simulated matches featuring more that 35.5 points.

It's easy to get excited about the over with just a quick glance over the team lists and form guide.

Roosters: Tedesco, Tupou, Mitchell, Keary and Cronk in a team scoring 25.1 points per game in their last seven.

Storm: Slater, Vunivalu, Addo-Carr, Munster and Smith are running out for a side that has beaten both of their last two opponents by 16+ points while scoring 30 points per game.

These are the two best defensive teams in the NRL right now but if Adelaide produces a dry track, the points will come.

Although the Model is dishing out some strong percentages in all three markets, none qualify as an SI value punt.

Taking the Over is the most appealing option at the time of writing, but it's dependent on the weather which is forecast for rain.

The Roosters to win at $2.29 carries the value, however, the Cordner and JWH outs are something that shouldn't be underestimated.

So, it's to the Line we go.

A rested Smith is worth getting behind on its own. He can steer the Storm from dummy half and has shown a tendency this season to take a lot more ball at first receiver than he's used to. Smith will be in everything which is enough to have confidence in the Storm at the -2 Line.

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