Footy Forensics: Roosters v Tigers

The fourth and final match of the round is another Origin-affected encounter proving difficult to tip.

Sydney has just started to look like they might be heading down the premiership-winning road many had them pegged for during the preseason while Wests have been fish-tailing their way through the last month, barely avoiding the ditch that would see them out of the Top 8.

The Stats Insider Model has the Tigers regaining control of their season with a win this week, though.

The $1.79 price worth getting around, but this could run very similar to Sea Eagles v Cowboys did on Friday night.

With so many Cowboys players missing, punters flocked to the high-flying Sea Eagles. However, the North Queensland had plenty of talent left on the list once the Origin coaches had taken their pick.

James Tedesco, Latrell Mitchell, Boyd Cordner and Dylan Napa are all away on representative duty which will have punters running to the Tigers, but there's still some quality left in Bondi.

This time of year was one of the reasons the Roosters were so keen on bringing Cooper Cronk to the club. Having the former Maroons and Kangaroos legend there to steer the ship through the rep period is where he's expected to earn his bread.

He will have Origin-hopeful Luke Keary beside him and former Blues regular Blake Ferguson playing at the back. Daniel Tupou returns from injury this week to add some experience to the outside backs while the forward back is still laden with internationals.

Despite all that, the Model is pointing towards the Tigers -1.5 Line.

The Tigers are unaffected by Origin, but that hasn't stopped them from making a change.

It's been turning all season and this week Wests merry-go-round at hooker has stopped for Elijah Tayor to jump on and start in the number nine jersey.

That in itself is a cause for concern for Tigers backers.

With their fifth-tackle options already amongst the poorest in the NRL, Taylors lack of decent service out of dummy half won't help matters. He will clog up the middle and act as an anchor in defence, but as long as he's passing from dummy half, the Tigers attack will lack fluidity. 

Where Wests can dominate to win ($1.79) and cover the -1.5 spread is in their defence.

Russell Packer seems to be the common denominator when it comes to the Tigers and their once NRL-best defence. 

In the eight games he's played this season, Wests have only conceded 12 tries.

In the four games he's missed, they've conceded 16.

If the Tigers can emulate the defence that saw them conceded the fewest points in the competition up until Round 8, they will take the chocolates and punters will pocket the profit H2H and at the Line.

And it's that defence that has the Model high on the Total points falling Under 38.5.

Wests isn't a good attacking side. Scoring just 15.7 points per game, they're way down at 14th in the competition. They get up the field fairly well but don't have enough finishing at the end of sets to turn an adequate amount of that possession into points.

The Roosters, on the other hand, was just starting to hit their stride with the ball in hand before Origin took four of their best players away. With the disruption of a reshuffle up against a stringent Tigers defence, the Roosters will struggle to score the 27.5 points per game they have done over the last month.

As far as value punts go for this one, the Model can only suggest taking the Tigers at the Line.

They do have the benefit of being unaffected by Origin and have been in decent enough form, but it's tough to go against a Cronk-led Chooks side starting to put it together - even with their Origin stars missing this week.

The Roosters to win at $2.09 is the recommendation but if you're short in confidence minus Tedesco, Mitchell, Cordner and Napa, back their defence to match the Tigers and take the Under.

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