Footy Forensics: Sea Eagles v Broncos

The Sea Eagles are looking to snap a four-game losing streak at Suncorp Stadium on Saturday night. Considering their poor recent record in Brisbane, their decision to host the Broncos in their own stadium is a strange one.

Manly had better hope the cash injection is worth it because the Stats Insider Model doesn't have much faith in them taking the chocolates.

Winning just 42% of the simulated matches at the time of writing, it could be a long night for any Sea Eagles fans making the trip north of the border.

If anything, that 58% could be higher. The numbers behind the Broncos so far this season aren't all that appealing but it's been their execution that has let them down the most. If a couple of those final passes can stick, the Broncos will soon find themselves hanging out much further up the ladder.

The Sea Eagles, on the other hand, don't offer up much hope.

Their off-field issues have compounded into poor results on the field with a snapping of their current five-game losing streak unlikely to come to an end this week.

Not only are they lacking in the middle outside of Marty Taupau and Jake Trbojevic, their outside backs don't require much attention on the scouting report at all.

With their Line set at +4.5 it's tough to see Manly covering it. Although, the Model is fairly confident.

Perhaps encouraged by their close-run 22-20 loss to the Roosters this week, the Model has the Sea Eagles covering the +4.5 spread in 56% of the 10,000 simulated matches.

However, the worry is how they contain the Broncos should the aforementioned passes start to stick.

Corey Oates is trying to stake his claim on a Queensland Origin jersey. It wasn't long ago that James Roberts was expected to wear one of the sky blue variety. Anthony Milford must have one eye on the vacant Maroons halfback jersey while Jack Bird has played in each of the last five Origin matches.

The Broncos could unleash at any moment and if it's this week, they'll blow the -4.5 Line into the Brisbane River.

Where the Model does push us is towards the Under.

With a whopping 68% of simulated matches finishing below the 42-point total, the Under qualifies as a Stats Insider value bet.

Siding with the Under is good for two reasons. 

It allows the Sea Eagles to turn up and put up a fight to at least keep it close. Based on what they did against the Roosters last week, it's not hard to picture a similar 22-20 scoreline if you try hard enough.

However, the Under also leaves room for a dominant Broncos.

If they get on a roll, the Sea Eagles will struggle to cross the line at all.

A 42-point total offers up plenty of room to move and with the Broncos $1.48 H2H odds fairly average in terms of value, and the Model not liking either team at the Line, the Under is the way to go.