Footy Forensics: Sea Eagles v Cowboys

It's at this point in the season where the Cowboys were expected to make their run.

As the other teams dealt with players being out during the Origin period, North Queensland still have a future immortal in Johnathan Thurston and the games best forward in Jason Taumalolo available to ride them home.

Nobody thought home would be this far away, though.

With only three wins in 12 matches, the comforts of the Top 8 are almost totally out of sight. Their premiership favourite tag is long gone as they sit 15th on the ladder through 12 rounds, just one loss away from the wooden spoon.

After 10,000 simulations of Sea Eagles v Cowboys, the Stats Insider Model suggests that potentially wooden spoon-handing loss might come this week.

The Model has accounted for all the talent on Origin duty this week, but lets recap.

Manly lose the Trbojevic brothers; arguably the heart and soul of all things great that happen for the team on the field. Their combination is otherworldly and as good as Daly Cherry-Evans is, he needs Jake and Tom there to really dominate a game.

North Queensland lose stacks on paper, but not so much on form. Michael Morgan hasn't come close to emulating the heroics of 2017 while Gavin Cooper is awfully lucky to be in the Maroons camp with the way he's been playing.

Matt Scott is another out for the Cowboys, but his absence is due to a suspension.

So, we've got the catalyst to Manly's attack out while North Queensland lose two players that aren't in good form for their club anyway.

But still, the Model likes the Sea Eagles in 64% of the 10,000 simulated matches. 

Being at Lottoland helps the Sea Eagles, but the Cowboys have won by 18 and 16 points in their last two visits to the Northern Beaches. 

Historical results don't carry a lot of weight when handicapping a match this week, but in a game that doesn't have many consistencies to rely on, North Queensland's form playing away at Manly deserves a tiny bit of consideration.

No matter where they play, though, the Cowboys are a good look at $2.09.

Even with the 179cm and 89 kg utility, Ben Hampton, named to start in the front row...

That will be changed when the team list is finalised before kickoff (surely) with the remainder of the Cowboys side more than capable of toppling the Sea Eagles.

Lachlan Coote is a proven performer; Ethan Lowe is back in first grade (he should never have left in the first place) and eager to solidify his spot; Kyle Feldt is a professional try scorer; Jake Granville isn't too far back in the line for the Queensland number nine jersey; and Shaun Fensom is a machine.

That group playing behind a rampaging Taumalolo and lead by Thurston should get the job done.

However, the Model isn't as confident. Not only does it have the Sea Eagles winning, it has them covering the -1.5 spread a lot more often than not.

By covering the spread in 61% of the 10,000 simulated matches, Manly at -1.5 qualifies as an SI value punt.

It's not out of the question, the Sea Eagles are in good form.

They've beaten the Broncos and Storm while falling just a point short to the Raiders in the last three weeks. Those were all with the Trbojevic brothers who directly contributed to five tries (scored or assisted) throughout the stretch, though.

With Manly lacking in attack and North Queensland only scoring 15.6 points per game (14th) this season, there's a real chance both sides struggle to score in this one.

Although, the Model can't make a pick on the Total.

At 50/50, there's no value in the Total falling either side of 39.5 points.

So what's the play here?

It comes down to who - or what - you have more trust in.

Trust the team list? North Queensland at $2.09 demands attention. 

Trust the model? Manly at -1.5 is the pick.

The split-round makes for an ugly week for NRL punters, and this match is just the start.