Footy Forensics - Sea Eagles v Knights

It's certainly not the biggest game of the round, but Sea Eagles v Knights will receive plenty of attention.

For the Sea Eagles, they need to display some solidarity and prove the off-field incidents that so clearly plagued them last week are behind them.

It's on the field where the Knights are dealing with some adversity. With Mitchell Pearce out for at least the next 10 weeks, they are without their marquee signing and leader.

With Pearce not on the teamsheet, the Stats Insider Model isn't convinced the Knights can get the job done. Through 10,000 simulations, the Model has the Knights taking the chocolates back to Newcastle in just 43% of matches.

That might have something to do with Newcastle's awful record at Brookvale Oval.

They've lost the last seven games and 15 of the 17 matches played between the two sides at the newly-named Lottoland.

With the H2H not much of an option despite some juicy $2.50, the +5.5 Line is certainly an eye-catcher.

The Knights look good to at least hang close with the Sea Eagles.

Pearce is the big name, but Kalyn Ponga is the heart and soul of their attack and should be able to guide them to enough points to compete for 80 minutes.

Defensively the Knights are frail; they give up the second-most points (26.3) and running metres (1,452) per game. But with the Sea Eagles' issues in attack over the last three weeks, the Knights will be able to limit them to the point they cover the +5.5 spread.

Newcastle is a team that sticks together and will fight for a whole match while Manly has more of a history fighting each other.

It's always comforting to know the Model agrees with you and on this occasion, seeing the Knights cover in 61% of matches is enough to pull the trigger on the +5.5.

Don't put the gun in the holster yet, though.

The Model has more.

Finishing Under 40.5 points in 66% of the 10,000 simulated matches, we're bracing ourselves for a low-scoring match on Friday night.

Using the last three weeks as a form guide for both teams, it's not hard to see why the Model is tipping such a points-deprived encounter.

The Sea Eagles are averaging just 14 points per game since the beginning of Round 5 with the Knights not much better at 15.3 points per game.

It seems too good to be true, but the Model backs everything up.

Avoid Newcastle head-to-head; they are too inconsistent to get right behind.

However, take them at the line. Nathan Brown's side is made for games like these and while winning is something they still need to master, keeping games close is an area they've always thrived in - even at their worst.

If you're after another punt, get down on defence and take the Under.

If this game is as ugly as we expect it to be, it will be worth sitting through if it fills our pockets.