Footy Forensics: Sharks v Broncos

With their place in the Top 8 coming under some pressure from below, the Broncos are in need of a victory. Winners of four from five before the bye, it looked as through Brisbane was getting ready to mount the horse and make a run up the eight.

An ugly 32-16 loss to Melbourne put an end to that idea.

However, not all hope is lost. A win over the Sharks in Cronulla would be enough to not only keep them in the Top 8 but see them draw level on points with as high as fifth on the ladder.

While the form guide suggests a Broncos win is unlikely, the Stats Insider Model is tipping a big upset.

With head-to-head odds at $2.40, the Broncos are carrying a tonne of value. 

Now that Josh McGuire and Alex Glenn have a game under them since returning from injury and James Roberts is back following a week off, this could well be the week the Broncos finally kick on.

Their pack has been crying out for help with Tevita Pangai Jr and Joe Ofahenguae unable to do all the work themselves - as much as they've tried.

Some health in the forwards couldn't have come at better time for the Broncos with the Sharks middles in fine form.

Andrew Fifita would be playing Origin this year had he not pledged his allegiances to Tonga. He's reminding everyone that he's still one of the best props in the game to average 142 running metres 3.8 offloads and 3.7 tackle breaks per game. 

Wade Graham is another that could well have played for the Blues this season should he have been healthy. He's a bonafide 80-minute man but has only finished three of the last five games he's started while missing four games in between.

With a pair of fringe Origin reps along with Paul Gallen, Luke Lewis and Matt Prior, the Sharks have plenty in the middle.

It's up to the Broncos to match them, and the Model thinks they will.

By winning 57% of the 10,000 simulated matches, the Model is pointing to the Broncos as a value punt for this one.

But don't rush and click 'quick bet' just yet; the Model isn't finished there.

The Broncos are getting a +4.5 headstart and considering the Model is tipping them to win regardless, this is where the true value lies.

Even without the Model's backing, the Broncos getting anything more than a try as a headstart is worth looking at. 

The Sharks love to keep games close and in the 55 games they've started as better than -4.5 favourites since 2008, they've covered just 21 times. Over their last 12 games as -4.5 favourites or better, they've won 11 straight up, but only covered the spread in four of them.

Cronulla loves to play down to their opposition so as favourites, they're easy to fade at the Line.

The Model suggests doing that here by pointing to the Broncos at +4.5 as a two-star punt with 76% of simulations cashing in.

However, that's where the value comes to an end in this one.

The Total is at 38 points with the Model leaning slightly towards the Over.

With Broncos at $2.40 receiving one star and their +4.5 Line receiving two, the Model has a clear favourite for this one. 

It's been like that all week.

Those that get onto the Opening Lines would have seen the Broncos highlighted as a value bet at +6 on Tuesday.

But as kickoff has drawn nearer, the Line has dropped to +4.5 at the time of writing.

So long as it stays above a meat pie, the Broncos look good to cover.

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