Footy Forensics: Sharks v Roosters
Apr 27, 2018, 12:13AM
The Roosters are $6 premiership favourites, but they are staring a third loss in five games straight down the barrel when they visit the Sharks on Friday night.
Embarrassed by the Warriors last week the Chooks will be smarting, but the SI Model isn't providing the Bondi locals with much confidence heading into the match.
Through 10,000 simulations, the Model has the Roosters beating the Sharks just 53% of the time. With that in mind, the $1.75 they're paying to win H2H hardly screams value.
A look at Cronulla's defensive numbers steers us even further away from the Tri-Colours as a reliable H2H option.
Through four games, the Sharks have conceded:
- 7 line breaks (1st)
- 28 offloads (1st)
- 58 points (2nd)
- 8 tries (3rd)
- 4,904 running metres (3rd)
Defence is their greatest strength and with it, the SI Model is tipping a close game.
It's no surprise that with only one point separating the two sides in the Model's predicted score, the value punt is taking the Sharks +2.
I like it - a lot.
An unattractive brand of football plays into the hands of the Sharks and no team coughs up the ball more than the Roosters.
The excuse of building combinations wears a little thin when you consider the fact the Roosters were famous for falling asleep during games last season while gifting opposing teams possession through their own errors.
So far this season, the Roosters haven't responded to adversity all that well either. The Tigers surprised them in Round 1 and they didn't know how to react. Round 4 wasn't much different as they had no answers for the Warriors once they found themselves down by a few points.
The Sharks will apply pressure to the Roosters in spades and love nothing more than to win ugly.
Paul Gallen has made a career out doing the dirty work and Luke Lewis will be there to work alongside him. Wade Graham is a monster for 80 minutes and Jayden Brailey will tackle anything that moves for as long as he's on the field.
The Sharks to win at $2.10 carries real value and deserves serious attention when you consider the fact they've won six of the last seven games between the two clubs.
Not quite ready to put all the leftover Easter eggs into the Sharks H2H basket, I'm leaning the way of the Model which has them covering the +2 line in 54% of the 10,000 prematch simulations.
