Footy Forensics: Storm v Broncos

Craig Bellamy is eyeing up Wayne Bennett's job in Brisbane, but first, he's looking to guide his Storm side over the Broncos at AAMI Park this week.

The Storm haven't lived up to the lofty standards they set in 2017 while the Broncos have struggled all year to kick-start their season. 

Bellamy has won 23 of the 33 games he's coached against Bennett, and the Stats Insider Model is tipping he gets number 24 in this one.

The 10-point win the model is spitting out seems big.

James Roberts has been rubbed out for the Broncos, but Andrew McCullough and Josh McGuire are backing up from Origin while Alex Glenn returns from injury.

Even without Roberts, this might be the best team the Broncos have named in the last two months.

The Model isn't convinced the Brisbane 17 can do the job.

With 71% of matches ending in a Storm victory, the $1.49 screams value.

They may be without Billy Slater, but playing at home always sees the Storm grow another leg and Cameron Smith is in the unfamiliar position of being well-rested throughout the middle rounds of the season.

It's going to be interesting to see how he uses that extra energy.

There's a good chance he picks up a lot of the ball-playing duties with Slater out. Ryley Jacks has been a passenger in the Storm attack and doesn't do a lot more than fill the jersey.

Smith's increased influence is a good reason to be confident in the Storm taking the chocolates.

It's the Broncos that could produce the profits at the Line, though.

With so much of the media attention on Brisbane's shortcomings, their improvements have been ignored and it shows in this +7.5 Line they've been given.

The Sea Eagles were giving a +6.5 Line when they visited Melbourne and beat the Storm three weeks ago.

+6.5!

They might not be the best performing team in the NRL at the moment, but the Broncos are better than the Sea Eagles.

The Model isn't much of a fan of the Broncos at +7.5, but it's something to consider.

McGuire's return is massive and Glenn also adds some starch to the pack.

The Brisbane halves cop all the heat, but it's the inconsistency of the pack they're playing behind that has hurt them most.

In McGuire and Glenn along with Tevita Pangai Jr and Joe Ofahenguae, the Broncos have a strong pack.

Strong enough to compete with the Storm through the middle and keep the game close enough to cover the +7.5 spread.

We've seen some low-scoring matches between these two sides in Melbourne, but the Model is tipping the over for this one.

The Broncos have been conceding 22 points per game so far this season while the Storm won't be at their strongest defensively in this one. Curtis Scott and Will Chambers are both serving suspensions leaving their edge defence vulnerable.

With the fire power both have in attack, it's not hard to see plenty of points coming in this one.

Given all the questions marks around form, players backing up from Origin, and outs due to injury and suspension, it's a straight flush of 'no bets' from the Model for Sunday afternoon.

Avoiding this game is the best option but if putting down a punt is a must, consider the Broncos at +7.5.