Footy Forensics: Storm v Dragons

It's a mouthwatering clash between two of 2018's genuine premiership contenders.

Until you look at the team lists...

Billy Slater, Will Chambers, Cameron Munster, Felise Kaufusi, Tim Glasby, Josh Addo-Carr, Ben Hunt, Tyson Frizell, Jack de Belin, Paul Vaughan and Tariq Sims are all on Origin duty. 

What's left are the remnants of two great sides preparing to go head-to-head in the NRL's infamous Thursday Night Footy slot.

There's only so much the NRL can do when it comes to scheduling, but this one is a shocker.

Nevertheless, the Stats Insider Model has taken on what these two teams are putting in, simulated the match 10,000 times, and has the Storm coming out on top more often than not.

The Model likes the Storm, but the value is in the Dragons. At $2.67 H2H, the table-toppers are at an attractive price even with the outs.

Gareth Widdop is worth getting behind and his battle with Cameron Smith could be the decider as both look to get the most out of what they've got around them.

Playing in Melbourne with a fit and healthy Smith, the Storm are deserved favourites. That $1.51 price isn't nearly good enough to back, though. Even with all of their first-choice players available, this Storm side isn't what we're used to. They've looked vulnerable at times this year while their error count has been uncharacteristically high.

The Storm should take the chocolates, but the Line might be where punters get theirs. 

With both sides depleted and the form guides relatively similar, it's not a surprise to see the Model like the Dragons here at +5.5.

There is a slight concern, though.

James Graham and Cameron McInnes are the only regular starters left in the forward pack this week. 

Leeson Ah Mau has been brilliant for them all year off the bench, but he will be expected to play starters minutes in this one.

The new back row of Jacob Host, Luciano Leilua and Blake Lawrie have only featured in 13 games combined this season with just one start (Host, Round 16) between them.

With combinations possibly left wanting along with the uncertainty of four guys expected to play starters minutes, it's not all plain sailing for the Dragons.

We haven't even got to their 29-year-old debutant, Darren Nicholls yet.

He slots into the halves alongside Widdop. Given the rap he has on him coming out of reserve grade, and the fact he's playing with one of the best halves in the game right now, Nicholls isn't too much of a worry here.

There are plenty of question marks around the Dragons at +5.5.

The Storm at -5.5, on the other hand, might be the way to go.

As a club, they know how to navigate this time of year relatively well. Origin outs are nothing new for Craig Bellamy and the Storm at all. And this time, they have Smith.

The Handicap market is a coin flip, and the Total isn't much better.

At 34.5 points, the Total seems low. There are still plenty of points on offer across the park even with all of the Origin outs.

New defenders in the middle for the Dragons aren't a sure thing, and the Storm's second-ranked defence in the competition won't be what it usually is. 

Both sides have their chief play-makers so there will be no shortage of questions asked in attack.

Those considerations aren't enough to be supremely confident, but the Model leaning towards the Over in 54% of the 10,000 simulated matches seems about right.

Where the Model is sure is with it's value punts - none.

Sometimes the Origin-affected teams can scream value when the bookmakers and public overcompensate for the outs. This game doesn't appear to be one of them.

The Storm at -5.5 gets a look with a healthy Smith playing at home, but the Model is bang on in this one: No Bet.

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