Footy Forensics: Storm v Knights

The Melbourne Storm haven't lost back-to-back games since they struggled to navigate the Origin period throughout the 2015 season.

Once they returned to full-strength and had become drenched following what must have been an almighty Craig Bellamy spray, Melbourne came out to thump Penrith 52-10 at home.

The losing streak might not be as long, but the Storm will be just as desperate to make a statement this week as they were back in Round 19 in 2015.

For the Knights, they are the unlucky club heading straight for the eye of the Storm on Friday night.

Through 10,000 simulations, the SI Model only has the Knights heading back to Newcastle holding the chocolates in 24% of games. At just $3.65, the value isn't there to back the visitors to win H2H.

But what about the Line?

Can the Knights keep it close enough to cover the +11.5 spread?

The Model isn't sure; only splitting the two sides by 2%.

It's the Knights edge defence that throws up the major unknown. Holding their own against a decidedly average Broncos side last week isn't a great form guide and certainly not one worth relying on ahead of a visit to Melbourne.

The Broncos couldn't get themselves into a position often enough to begin to expose any weakness that might be there.

• Shaun Kenny-Dowall averages one try cause and a linebreak cause every game
• Sione Mata'utia averages one try cause and 2.8 missed tackles per game
• Before last week, Nathan Ross had only ever played two games at centre
• Ken Sio's name has never been mentioned in a conversation about defence

The same four players went out and held the Broncos to 10 points last week so it comes down to a) how much you trust them to do it again, and b) whether or not you think the Storm will be on a rampage.

Either way, it's another area where there isn't any clear-cut value.

That's where the Total comes into play.

At the time of writing, the SI Model has the game clearing the 38.5 points total in 54% of games.

With the Storm leading the NRL in errors (14.4) to complete the fewest sets (69%) as a result, they've given up a tonne of chances to pile on the points so far this season.

That surely ends after a week with Bellamy's foot wedged up their backside.

"They're due" isn't a great reason to tip a side in any code, but it might just apply here.  I'm laying down on the Over while sliding a few the way of the Storm at -11.5.