Footy Forensics: Storm v Raiders

The calculator is still out at Raiders HQ.

So long as they win every game and have a few other results go their way, they will make the Top 8 by the end of Round 25.

Already a massive mountain to climb, they've got the defending premier and current table-topping Storm waiting for them at the bottom.

If the Raiders can't find a way to win in Melbourne on Saturday night, you can stick a fork in them; they're done.

The Stats Insider Model is suggesting we start heading to the cutlery drawer already with 10,000 simulations of the match handing the Storm a significant double-digit win.

It's a substantial winning margin for the Storm who, despite being on a seven-game winning streak, haven't been blowing teams off the park. Three of those wins came by a single point and they could only beat a fairly lethargic Warriors side by six points last week. They're not the Storm of 2017, that's for sure.

However, the Storm of 2018 is expected to deal to the Raiders in a whopping 73% of the 10,000 simulations.

Now, that number may seem inflated given the Storm's scratchy, albeit, winning form. The Raiders have been playing well in recent weeks and should arguably be riding a three-game winning streak into this one.

But as far as the market is concerned, 73% is bang on. 

The Model has identified just a +1% edge against average market probabilities.

The news gets no better at the line with no value on offer either way.

It's worth considering the fact that the Raiders score more points than any other side in the NRL. 

With 24.9 points per game, the Green Machine outscores the recognised elite attacks in the Dragons (24.5) and Rabbitohs (23.9) in second and third, as well as the Storm scoring 22.9 points per game in at fourth.

They might need to try something different this week, though.

The Raiders tend to send most of their traffic through the middle via the likes of Junior Paulo, Josh Papalii and Dunamis Lui. Despite having the destructive Jordan Rapana/Joey Leiluia combination on the right side, no team has sent the ball to that side of the field less than the Raiders.

Remarkably, they're last in shifts left too.

Melbourne don't leak points through the middle, or anywhere for that matter.

Only the Roosters concede fewer than the Storm's 15.1 points per game.

They hold tight in the centre of the field and have two of the better defensive centres in the competition holding down the edges.

The Raiders are going to need to come up with something better than simply taking the fat man's track towards the try line for this one.

With the Over/Under at 41.5 points, the Model doesn't think the Raiders can contribute enough points to send this one Over.

Given a +4% edge against average market probabilities, the Under gets the lean here.

It all makes sense with Canberra's lack of ball-movement and Melbourne's stringent defence clogging up the middle.

With that +4% edge, the Model as identified the Under as a value bet.

It's all or nothing for the Raiders here so their +9.5 Line deserves a look. Desperation can do funny things to a football side - especially in defence.

But with Melbourne's inconsistencies in attack and their ability to defend every area across the field, siding with the Model and the Under 41.5 points is the way to go.

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