Footy Forensics: Tigers v Bulldogs

Ivan Cleary's Tigers have a chance to spend a 12th consecutive week in the Top 8 with a win here.

Talked about as a possible wooden spoon candidate, Wests have been one of the surprise packets this season, but they've started to unravel over the last month.

Four defeats in their last five games have seen their hot start to the season go somewhat wasted. However, the Stats Insider Model is predicting a resurgence this week against the 14th-placed Bulldogs.

The most alarming number to come out of the Model's predicted score is Wests 24 points.

They've only scored 24+ points twice all season and are ranked 14th in attack averaging just 15.8 points per game.

Fifth-tackle options have been a nightmare for the Tigers over the last five weeks. Benji Marshall can kick into space and control a match, but he's not the match-winner he was in the prime of his career.

Perhaps it's the changes to the team list that has the Model so excited.

Tui Lolohea returns to start at fullback with Mahe Fonua being recalled into the centres. Corey Thompson has taken Malakai Watene-Zelezniak's spot on the wing while Michael Chee-Kam replaces Robbie Rochow in the back row.

Josh Reynolds also returns from injury to face his former side in just his second match for the Tigers.

This might be the best attacking side the Tigers have sent out all season and, as a result, the Model is all over Wests in the Head-to-head market with their $1.68 the way to go.

Canterbury has been on the improve, but they will struggle to crack Wests defence this week.

One of only two teams worse in attack than the Tigers, the Bulldogs don't strike any fear into opposing defences.

The Tigers and their third-best defence in the NRL won't be having nightmares about the Bulldogs running through them heading into this one.

We've seen Wests claw their way to victory a number of times already this season while the Dogs don't appear to have any clue late in the piece with the game on the line.

You can put your trust in the Tigers defence at $1.68.

However, in saying that, the Model is leaning towards the Over.

For it to have a chance of getting Over the 37.5 Total, the Bulldogs are surely going to have to play a role on the scoreboard. It's difficult to see that happening given Canterbury's struggles with the ball in hand that extend well beyond just this season.

If you're equally as unconvinced by the Model's lean towards the Over, there's some common ground at the Line.

Covering the spread in 62% of the 10,000 simulated matches, the Model has the Tigers at -3.5 down as a one-star recommended bet.

Unlike the lean towards the Over, the Tigers at the Line is something you can be confident in.

Wests offer a little more than the Bulldogs in attack, but a lot more in defence. The difference should be enough cover the -3.5 relatively comfortably.

In a game that may end up crying out for quality on the field, the Tigers at the Line screams value.