Footy Forensics: Tigers v Cowboys

Is this the week the Cowboys saddle up and run away with a game?

Up 20-0 over the Panthers at halftime, it looked like the Cowboys would announce their revival last week. That was until they allowed Penrith to fight back before barely holding on for the 26-20 win. 

The Cowboys have another chance against a struggling Tigers side on Thursday night, but while the Stats Insider Model is tipping them to win, it's not by much.

Through 10,000 of Tigers v Cowboys at the time of writing, the Model has the visitors getting the victory by a single point.

Johnathan Thurston is hunting for his first win against the Tigers in Sydney from 13 attempts, but the Model isn't brimming with confidence.

Winning just 53% of the simulated matches, the Cowboys appear to have their work cut out for them.

But - and it's a big and nervous but - the Model might be underselling the Cowboys in this one.

The Tigers have been decidedly average of late with their formerly league-best defence nowhere to be seen. It's gone. Kaput.

They're missing tackles, making wrong decisions on the edge, and putting their already ordinary attack under all sorts of pressure by leaking points and playing from behind.

The Cowboys, on the other hand, are starting to put it together. Albeit, painfully slowly. Taking them straight up at $1.76 isn't a bad option - at all.

Jason Taumalolo had 145 running metres in the first half last week. If there's one man that can be the catalyst to the Cowboys and their rise up the ladder, it's the big Tongan.

Once he's moving up the field, Thurston and Michael Morgan will have every opportunity to manufacture enough points to put the Tigers away.

However, the Model doesn't share the same confidence in the Cowboys dealing to the Tigers all that easily. With their Line set at -1.5, the Model has them covering the spread in only 54% of the 10,000 simulated matches.

With the H2H and Line percentages so close and not backing up the feeling heading into the match, the Total might be the way to go.

It's always comforting to get the backing of the Model when placing a bet, and that's where the Under comes in.

With 59% of matches falling below the 38-point Total, the Under qualifies as an SI Value Bet.

With Russell Packer returning from injury, this might be the week the Tigers defence resurfaces. In the five matches he has played this season, Wests have conceded just 11 points per game.

If they do that, the Under is a lock.

Without wanting to say "they're due", the Cowboys at -1.5 is a solid lean. The form guide suggests they are playing the better football at the moment and the Tigers having the home field advantage is unlikely to be enough to combat that.

However, the Model has a clear-cut favourite in the Under when it comes to value.

Getting on both options is the way to go here.