Footy Forensics: Tigers v Rabbitohs

The history between these two clubs is enough to be excited for this game even before seeing the value on offer for punters.

As if the fixture wasn't getting enough attention with John Sutton becoming the first Rabbitoh to play 300 games along with Robbie Farah playing his 250th for the Tigers, the Souths digi team fired up the fans on social media.

You wouldn't ride a broken bus 🚌. You wouldn't pick a fight with @MarioFenech👊and you wouldn't merge two foundation clubs... Unless you're the @WestsTigers. 🐇>🐯#GoRabbitohs pic.twitter.com/rIvQLpBFyw

— South Sydney Rabbitohs 🐰 (@SSFCRABBITOHS) July 16, 2018

The response, from out West especially, has been lively. However, the Stats Insider Model doesn't think the Tigers players will bite back on their behalf.

Flying along to have won nine in a row, the Rabbitohs are winning their 10th in 61% of the 10,000 simulated matches.

The success of the Rabbitohs - and the reason for the Model's 61% winning rate - stems from their NRL-best attack averaging 25 points per game.

They are a threat from anywhere on the field.

Only the Dragons run for more than the Rabbitohs' 1,446 per a game, but Souths spread it across the park.

Through the middle, Sam Burgess leads the way with 134 metres per game while getting plenty of help from his brothers Thomas (107m per game) and George (91m per game). Then there's Damien Cook leading all hookers in the competition with 93 metres per game.

The issue for most teams trying to contain them is Souths aren't only running through the middle.

George Jennings is out on the left wing finding 122 metres with Angus Crichton on the right edge managing 120 metres of his own.

By leading the competition in general play passes with 118.9 per game and regular shifts wide, the Rabbitohs need to be constantly covered from sideline to sideline.

It's that attack that will more than likely win the game, but their $1.32 Head-to-Head price isn't worth getting on.

It's at the Line we find the value in this match.

The Model has the Tigers covering the +8.5 Line in a whopping 66% of simulated matches.

Few teams are equipped to handle this blistering attack, but the Tigers are more than capable of slowing them down enough to cover the +8.5 Line.

It will depend on which Tigers team turns up, though.

Throughout the first month of the season, Wests kept the Roosters, Storm and Broncos all to single digits. They did it through a scrambling defence that covered the width of the field.

They might miss the most tackles at 34.1 per game, but only two sides make more than their 310.5 per game.

Following that opening few weeks unpenetrable defence, Wests focus seemed to turn to their flailing attack, which after two months, barely improved.

After reverting back to their defence-first approach and holding the Dragons - then the leaders in points per game - to only 16 points last week, the Tigers are a good chance at limiting the points the Rabbitohs tend to pile on.

With their season on the line, the best bet for the Tigers is to go back to what's worked before.

If they do, the Under at 40.5 points is a strong option - and the Model agrees.

If the Tigers defence turns up, so is the Under.

The Model having 59% of the simulated matches ending Under 40.5 points backs up Wests 65% Under-rate in games this season. Only the Dragons - alarmingly enough - have had more of their games (71%) finish Under the Total in 2018.

When it comes to the Model's value punts, it's backing the presence of the Tigers elite defence on Saturday evening.

If the Tigers at +8.5 is coming in, the Under is a brilliant chance as well.

Taking both isn't an outrageous idea but if we're leaning towards one, backing the Tigers with the +8.5 headstart is the way to go.

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