Footy Forensics: Tigers v Raiders

It's may look like a fairly standard 9th vs 10th clash, but it could end up being season-defining for the losing team.

If the Tigers can't find a way to score enough points and beat a team below them on the ladder, their hopes of playing finals football will fade  - fast.

For the Raiders, they're still yet to beat a side above them on the ladder. A loss in this one would move them to 5-9 and all but secure their place in the Bottom 8 for Round 25.

Tigers fans rejoice!

The Stats Insider Model is tipping a win - just.

The prediction comes on the back of key injuries for both sides.

Jordan Rapana's hamstring rules him out of this one and puts a massive dent in Canberra's attack. Meanwhile, Josh Reynolds has been ruled out for the Tigers just as he was starting to look comfortable in his return from injury.

At $1.79 to win, the Tigers carry the value ever so slightly. 

However, the Raiders still have plenty to play with and are certainly worth a look at $2.08 with the Model tipping them to win in 46% of the 10,000 simulations.

This is a classic battle of attack vs defence.

The Raiders may be languishing at 10th on the ladder, but their 21.8 points per game is good for the fifth-best attack in the NRL.

Meanwhile, the Tigers are a defensive powerhouse. Their ability to hold out the opposition has seen them beat the likes of the Storm and Roosters as their 15.5 points conceded per game ranks third in the competition.

As far as the form guide goes, the Raiders are a touch ahead.

They fronted up against the Dragons in Round 11 before just pipping the Sea Eagles in Round 12. Following the bye, they were painfully unlucky in going down 23-22 to the Panthers in Round 14.

The Tigers, on the other hand, were far from convincing in their win over the Bulldogs ahead of back-to-back losses against the Roosters and Sharks. Their measly 15.6 points per game sees their attack run 14th in the competition, and it doesn't seem to be getting any better.

There's a good chance Wests will need more than 16 points to win this one.

Had this game been at GIO Stadium instead of Leichhardt, Canberra may have been coming in as favourites.

With the two sides coming from opposite ends of the rugby league spectrum, the Model can't split them at the Line.

The Raiders have played out two games separated by a single point in their last two outings while the Tigers have been involved in their fair share of close encounters this season.

With the match being a coinflip and one-point quite possibly being the difference, the Model has this market bang on by tipping it as a 'no bet'.

Given how the two sides matchup, it's unlikely we see one team get too far ahead of the other and with Wests defence, the Model likes the Under.

In fact, it loves the Under enough to hand out a star and qualify it as a value bet.

Rapana is a massive out for the Raiders and significantly reduces the potency of their best avenue in attack - the right side.

It's enough to put doubt in Canberra's $2.08 odds and with their form in recent weeks, West at $1.79 isn't a price that warrants much excitement. 

With Canberra's attack not what it usually is while the Tigers defence rarely falters, we can count on this game being low-scoring. Getting on the Under at 40.5 is the way to go.

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