Footy Forensics: Tigers v Roosters

It may not be in the blockbuster timeslot, but all eyes will be on the new-look Sydney Roosters when they take on the Wests Tigers on Saturday afternoon.

While Cooper Cronk is a drawcard any day of the week, it's James Tedesco and the grudge match against his former club everyone wants to see here.

Tedesco swapped the black, orange and white for the white, red and blue over the summer and given the already stacked side he - alongside Cronk - is walking into, it's no surprise the SI model heavily favours the Chooks in this one.

Of the 10,000 simulated matches, the Roosters took the chocolates 67% of the time.

No surprise there, really.

As a result, the H2H market carries little value so we divert our attention as punters to the line.

As the square rushes to make their bet ahead of kickoff, they'll scan the team list to see Cronk and Tedesco teaming up with the likes of Daniel Tupou, Jared Waerea-Hargreaves, Jake Friend and Boyd Cordner and lay it all on the line.

It could be set at -18.5 and the pull of the team that finished second on the ladder in 2017 adding a premiership-winning half and NSW fullback will still be too strong.

However, the SI models offer up a different suggestion.

The numbers tell us that at the time of writing, the Tigers have a 60% chance of covering the current +10.5 line.

There's no question the Roosters have the superior roster and the level of talent they will send out on Saturday will dwarf that of the Tigers. But they also have new faces in key playmaking positions.

It's hard enough breaking a ball-dominant halfback into a football side, but doing so with an offensively one-dimensional hooker and a superstar fullback that will also want possessions with the footy?

That's going to take some time.

It's going to take more than a couple of runarounds over the summer for combinations to form and the SI model reflects that.

As far as the over/under goes, 43.5 points is a big ask.

The edge here is, again, Cleary.

In his 10 seasons as a head coach prior to his appointment at Wests, only three of Cleary's teams were in the bottom half of the competition for points against.

When you consider the fact six of those seasons were with the famously inconsistent Warriors and two with the Panthers deep in rebuild mode, it's obvious this man has a gift.

The SI predicted score has Cleary working his magic on this Tigers team and limiting one of 2017's best-attacking sides to just 21 points.

Underdogs are the way to go in the early rounds of an NRL season with the Tigers looking the goods here. However, if you're looking for real value, the Under is getting three stars from the SI Punting Predictions.