Footy Forensics: Tigers v Titans

It's the Robbie Farah welcome home game but more importantly, it's one that could define Wests season.

Sitting 10th on the ladder with the gap between themselves and 8th widening, the Tigers can't afford to lose to the Titans in this one. If they do, you can start to put a line through them as a possible finals side.

As far as the Stats Insider Model is concerned, we don't need to reach for the red pen just yet.

Through 10,000 simulations of Tigers v Titans, the Model has the home side finishing on top by more than a converted try.

The 23 points is a somewhat alarming number. Perhaps it's the addition of Moses Mbye, but the Tigers have only scored 23+ points in a game twice this season.

Putting the exact score prediction to one side, it's the 67% of the 10,000 simulations that Wests are winning that points out some value.

At $1.48 head-to-head, the Tigers to win is a strong place to start.

With the arrival of Farah and Mbye, Wests can finally build the combinations of their spine having had players in and out of the fullback and hooking roles, in particular.

Elijah Taylor isn't a good hooker.

Tui Lolohea isn't a good fullback.

Farah and Mbye will improve Wests exponentially. 

However, it's that current lack of combination and chemistry that may lend itself to a scratchy start. With two of the four players in key playmaking positions joining the side this week and Josh Reynolds starting just his second game in the halves for the Tigers, there are question marks over an already poor attack.

The doubts aren't enough for the Model to be confident in the Titans covering the spread, though. At 51%, the lean is ever so slightly towards the Tigers at -6.

With the pack they bring into this one, the Titans are a threat.

Jarrod Wallace and Jai Arrow played for Queensland last week while Ryan James was unlucky not to run out for New South Wales. Nathan Peats is only a year removed from making his Origin debut and then there's Kevin Proctor; a Kiwi international. 

The Titans are strong in the forwards and when they can bend the line and spend enough time down the right end of the field, Ash Taylor - the NRL's leader in try assists - can send his teammates over the line.

Scoring points isn't a huge issue for the Titans. It's stopping them coming back the other way that they struggle with. Only Newcastle concedes more points than the Gold Coast's 25.3 per game.

With Wests lack of scoring and the Gold Coast's leaky defence, the Model likes this game to finish Under 42.5 points.

Given how inconsistent the two teams have been in 2018, the most reliable area to count on is the Tigers defence. 

It hasn't been on display in their last two games, but with the Elijah Taylor back in his preferred lock position, we can expect an improvement this week.

The Model calling 'no bet' on everything, but there are definite leans.

Taking the Under is siding with the Model and a decent play here.

Anticipating a few hiccups from the Tigers and a strong effort from the Titans forwards to cover the +6 is another option.

However, with all the storylines and uncertainty heading into this one, it might be best to take a game off the punt on Sunday afternoon.

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