Footy Forensics: Titans v Broncos

It's the Queensland Derby that could deliver the Titans faithful with some genuine hope of reaching the Top 8 by the season's end. However, with the Warriors capitulating in Penrith last night, the Broncos have a chance to lift themselves above 8th on the ladder to all but lock in their finals spot for Round 25.

Through 10,000 simulations of Titans v Broncos, the Stats Insider Model has turned this game on its head.

For a start, the Model is tipping a four-point Titans win despite being +2.5 Underdogs with the bookmakers.

Naturally, for anybody who was coming in hot on the Broncos to win, some doubts creep in.

How will they cope without James Roberts, Andrew McCullough, Josh McGuire and Corey Oates making the trip down the M1 to Robina?

Roberts and McCullough won't be replaced like-for-like. Kotoni Staggs and Jake Turpin will act as serviceable replacements, but they won't have nearly the same impact on this match as the rep duo would.

Finding production won't be so difficult in the pack, though. Tevita Pangai Jr returns from injury while Joe Ofahengaue takes McGuire's spot at lock. If Moose wasn't in Queensland camp, Ofahengaue would be, so the Broncos are covered there.

The same can't be said for the Titans and their Origin stars.

Either one of Jarrod Wallace and Jai Arrow (quite often both) have been at the forefront of any decent Titans performance this season.

He may claim not to care about statistics when he's playing for Queensland, but Wallace fills the sheet at club level.

Meanwhile, his Origin teammate Arrow embodies everything that is the Titans in his unrelenting effort and willingness to do whatever it takes for the betterment of the team.

He's one they can't replace.

With the Titans lacking so much in the forwards, it's tough to see them being able to earn enough quality field position. Ash Taylor is a special talent and the league-leader in try assists, but he needs the ball in the right area of the field to work his magic.

Nevertheless, the Model is confident in the Titans Head-to-Head.

It doesn't take a genius to figure out the Model suggests going all-in on the Titans at $2.21. That's an incredible price in comparison to the 59% win-rate the Model is spitting out. The Gold Coast are coming in off two big wins while scoring 30+ points in both. It's the best they've looked all season.

However, the Broncos at $1.70 isn't bad either.

Having played out their best 40 minutes of the season in last weeks come-from-behind win over the Raiders, the Broncos know exactly what is required of them. They shouldn't need 40 minutes to figure it out this week - especially against a Titans team they're so familiar with.

Both are strong options H2H, but the Model is head over heels for the Titans at the Line.

Having the Titans covering the +2.5 in 76% of the 10,000 simulations is another head-scratcher.

With what the Broncos produced after halftime last week, it's not outrageous to think they might come in and deal to the Titans here.

The Brisbane pack is certainly superior. If they've not played representative footy already, the majority of those running out on Sunday are slated to do so in the future. It's difficult to picture the scenario where the Titans make regular enough dents in the Broncos line to earn the chances in attack, no matter what the Model suggests.

Where the Model has no preference is in the Over/Under.

At 42.5 points it's a 50:50 split.

If there's a lean, it's to the Over. Given the Titans are the second-worst defensive team in the NRL while the Broncos aren't much better just three spots higher, points are on offer.

We saw what can happen on Thursday night when two teams lose key players that would usually shoulder much of the defensive load.

But forget the Total. It's at the Line we pull the trigger.

As great has the Model has been as a guide this season, it's confidence in the Titans at +2.5 is a struggle to get behind.

The Broncos have too much talent and are too well-coached to fall victim to a Titans team missing two of their core pieces in the middle. Brisbane will be smarting from their Round 4 loss at home too.

Back the Broncos to pick up where they left off last week to cover the -2.5.

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