Footy Forensics: Titans v Rabbitohs

The Rabbitohs have become the surprise package of the competition following their seven wins in eight games.

By sky-rocketing up the ladder to sit third through 13 rounds, Souths have entered the conversation of genuine premiership contenders. The Titans, on the other hand, are being mentioned as a potential wooden spoon candidate.

Garth Brennan has struggled in his first year as a head coach and the Stats Insider Model is adding to the pain on the Gold Coast this week.

Through 10,000 simulations of Titans v Rabbitohs, the Model has the visitors scraping to victory.

First of all, that's an alarming scoreline.

The cellar-dwelling Titans go within a point of the high-flying Rabbitohs?

It's one that the Gold Coast would take as a moral victory while Souths lick their wounds and thank their lucky stars they got away with it.

The Model isn't ruling out an upset either with the Titans winning 48% of the simulated matches.

With a winning-rate like that, the Gold Coast's $2.80 garners some serious attention, however, it might all be misguided.

While the Rabbitohs are relying on Greg Inglis, Dane Gagai, Damien Cook and Angus Crichton to back up from State of Origin, we've seen them beat a quality side in the Sharks without them already.

Anthony Seibold has this group playing such simple and consistent footy, he can throw in a few players as stop-gaps and still find a way to win.

Bust teams through the middle and send it wide. If there's nothing on out there, get stuck into the middle again. 

It's a straightforward game plan working wonders for the Bunnies so far this season.

The Titans, however, struggle to win even at full strength.

Their middle is strong on paper but gets loaded with so much work they rarely dominate the opposition. Meanwhile, their outside backs are pedestrian at best. 

To make matters worse, their most influential players in Jarrod Wallace and Jai Arrow played in Wednesday's Origin and won't be at 100%.

At $1.45 and as one of the hottest teams in the NRL, the Rabbitohs head-to-head looks a good play to fill a multi.

The Model is all over the Titans and their +6.5 Line, though.

This is something worth considering if the Rabbitohs and their $1.45 doesn't spike any interest.

For how bad the Titans are overall, they don't seem to know it.

They try their guts out with the likes of Wallace, Arrow along with Keegan Hipgrave, Kevin Proctor and Ryan James never backing down no matter the scoreline.

It was only three weeks ago the Titans had the Storm on the rocks. The upset was on before the defending-premiers pulled a rabbit out of the hat to earn a tougher than expected win.

The same could happen in this one.

With the players the Titans have in the middle of the field, they can absolutely compete with the Rabbitohs. It's the likelihood they fall away over the last 20 minutes that lends itself to the +6.5 Line being the play ahead of the $2.80 H2H.

The Model is also on the Total going Under 45.5 points.

That 45.5 Total is big and will be a result of the Rabbitohs being second in the NRL in points scored with 24.6 points per game while no side concedes more than the Titans' 27.3 points per game.

The Model has signalled two value bets for this one and it's relying on that resilient attitude the Titans have become known for.

If it becomes a shootout, the Titans are no chance of covering the +6.5 spread and the 45.5 Total will be in real danger of going Over. But if the Gold Coast can put a lid on Souths through the middle to start this one, they should be able to keep it close enough over 80 minutes to cover the +6.5 in which case, the Under will come in with ease.

The week off last week will help 15 of the 17 Titans named to play this week while the Rabbitohs didn't have the same luxury. 

It will come down to the teams named an hour before kickoff.

If Damien Cook, in particular, recovers from his sternum injury sustained on Wednesday night, the Souths attack will have plenty in it to obliterate the -6.5 Line.

But if he's not there and Dane Gagai also sits out which his fractured hand, the value is with the Titans keeping the game close and low-scoring.