Footy Forensics: Underdog Sunday
Last updated: Aug 4, 2018, 2:01PM | Published: Aug 4, 2018, 1:36AM
The Stats Insider Model has simulated both Sunday afternoon games and is all over the underdogs in both.
First off, the Sharks and Sea Eagles present an opportunity to pounce on some head-to-head value.
Despite allowing Penrith to score 22 points in seven minutes last week, the Model likes Manly to keep in touch with Cronulla in this one.
Given the Sharks have the lowest average margin of victory (8.8 points) of all the Top 8 teams, it's not a shock to see the Model give the Sea Eagles a sniff.
While it does have them winning 66% of the simulated matches, Cronulla's head-to-head price at the time of writing doesn't offer any value in the slightest. All of the value in the H2H markets goes with the Sea Eagles with a +7% edge against average market probabilities.
If the Sea Eagles can't quite do enough to take the chocolates, their +9.5 Line is another strong option carrying a +9% edge. The visitors covering the spread also lends itself to the Under at 42.5 points.
There are a few similarities in the numbers of the two sides heading into this one.
Most notably, they both occupy 51.3% possession which is good for equal-third across the competition. Only seven teams lay claim to an average possession percentage over 50%.
With that 51.3% possession, the Sharks average 170.6 runs, for 1,522 running metres and 40.3 metres per set. Meanwhile, the Sea Eagles average 161.7 runs for 1,483 running metres and 40.7 metres per set.
Manly's 19.9 points per game slightly outdo Cronulla's 19.7; however, the home side engages (12.5 line engaged runs vs 10.2) and breaks (4.1 linebreaks vs 3.8) the line more each game.
With the ball in hand, Manly can certainly compete. It's on the defensive end where the Sharks earn their favourites tag.
Conceding just 17.4 points per game, the Sharks have the fourth-best defence in the competition while the Sea Eagles are way down in 15th conceding 24.8 points.
So, to the smileys we go.
The Model points out Manly head-to-head and the Under at 42.5 points as suggested bets, along with a lean towards their +9.5 Line.
It's been a difficult year to trust the Sea Eagles, but this is one to trust the Model and back the battling side to cause the upset.
Panthers v Raiders ends Round 21, and it's another game the Model likes the underdog.
Despite Penrith winning 58% of the 10,000 simulations, Canberra and their +9% edge over average market probabilities are where the value lies.
The Green Machine isn't a bad side, but brain fades, injuries, and a bit of bad luck have cost them a place in the Top 8 for 2018. That doesn't mean they can't cause an upset before the season is over, though.
With their attack third in the competition scoring 24.1 points per game, they can beat anybody on their day. Including a Panthers side that is known for their lapses and concentration, and their willingness to handout early leads to the opposition.
Penrith also has a reputation for pulling off miracle comebacks, and that's where Canberra's +8 Line comes in.
By covering 66% of the 10,000 simulated matches, the Raiders at +8 carries a +16% edge against average market probabilities and allows for their now famous late-game capitulations.
It's the safer option in a match between two sides that embody every bit of the classic "it's a game of two halves" saying.
However, it's in the Over/Under market where the Model has found the biggest edge.
With a +21% edge against the market, the Under at 44.5 is one of three suggested bets from the Model for this one.
It's a full house if smileys wearing their sunnies inside as the Raiders H2H, their +8 Line and the Under are all being backed.
Underdogs have been kind to us so far in Round 21 with the Rabbitohs and Bulldogs both producing the goods earlier. Now, were on the Sea Eagles and Raiders to do the same.
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