Footy Forensics: Warriors v Dragons

It was looking like Round 7 would play host to a fixture between two unbeaten teams, but the Warriors' 27-18 loss to the Broncos in Round 6 put an end to that.

Nevertheless, it looked as though Warriors v Dragons would still be a barnstormer featuring not only two of the best sides in the NRL, but the top two sides in Stats Insiders Power Rankings.

The Warriors may have ruined that too.

Shaun Johnson (undisclosed injury) and Solomone Kata (ankle sprain) both ruled out of this week’s game for the @NZWarriors

— NRL PHYSIO (@nrlphysio) April 19, 2018

With Shaun Johnson ruled out, the SI Model's performed a backflip.

Through 10,000 simulations with Johnson in the lineup, the Warriors were favoured to win 57% of the time. However, with him out, the tables have turned.

The Model now gives the Dragons the edge.

As brilliant as the Dragons have been throughout their unbeaten run to start the season, the Warriors at $2.55 will instantly catch your eye. With a 5-1 record for the season including wins in matches they are famous for losing, tipping the Warriors is no longer just "a matter of faith" like years gone by.

This group is different.

They are confident, but not cocky.

They are exciting, but not erratic.

They can somehow be calm and chaotic both at the same time.

While the Warriors bask in their best six-week stretch in six years, there's a better option than siding with them H2H this week.

Following the news of Johnson's injury, an already fancied +1.5 line ballooned out to +4.5. The Model fell madly in love to have the Warriors covering the spread in 66% of the 10,000 simulated matches.

It makes a lot of sense.

The middle was always the deciding factor in this game; Johnson's injury doesn't change that.

The Dragons have been running over everybody before unleashing their backline that consists of the perfect combination of power and speed to be 6-0. Similarly, the Warriors' five wins have come from dominant performances in the middle with their backline equally as potent.

Only 11 metres separate the two sides in running metres while they both average 172 runs per game.

Some considered Thursday night's Bulldogs v Roosters snoozefest an arm-wrestle, but that was an insult to arm-wrestling.

This one, however, will resemble more of a heavyweight title fight.

With the centre-third of the field set to host most of this match, it's primed to be low scoring. Not only adding weight to the Warriors +4.5 Line, a forwards battle featuring few tries sets up the Under quite nicely.

With the Total set at 40.5 at the time of writing, the SI Model has this match going Under in 54% of the 10,000 simulations.

There's still an element of uncertainty around the Warriors. Have they really turned a corner, or are they just in the midst of a purple patch?

Cheering on every hit up and resulting tackle and siding with the Under is the stress free option, but SI has the Warriors +4.5 as the value play.

The Warriors weren't great last week, but they've shown enough in the six rounds to be confident of a bounce-back performance. While it might not translate into an H2H win at those attractive $2.55 odds, the +4.5 Line is too good to pass up.

Trust the Model and prepare for a bruiser.