Footy Forensics: Warriors v Roosters

When the NRL released the 2018 schedule, people started to circle a few games that can't be missed early in the season.

The new-look Tigers v new-look Roosters in Round 1.

The Broncos v Cowboys in the Queensland derby in Round 2.

Mitchell Pearce's return to Sydney for Knights v Roosters in Round 3.

Nobody had the Warriors and their visit to Allianz Stadium to play the Roosters circled for Round 4, though.

The assumption was that the Kiwis would be closer to 0-3 than their current 3-0 record heading into this one. They'd get on a plane - which has historically sucked their skills from them like they're the Monstars in Space Jam - and submit to a premiership-favourite Roosters outfit without a fight.

However, they've surprised everyone to be crossing the ditch and headed to Sydney on a raft of confidence built on an unbeaten start to the season.

Confidence may be sky-high, but the SI Model isn't flying up there with them.

Through 10,000 simulations, the Model has the Warriors winning just 28% of the time.

While the Model may be selling the Warriors a little short based on how they've played over the last three weeks, at $3.35 to win, there's enough value there to get you thinking.

They're a rocks and diamonds team that can turn up and wipe the floor with anyone.

But - and it's a big but - their history in Australia acts as a vocal conscience, sitting on your shoulder, steering you away from the H2H. They've not had a winning record in Australia since the 2010 season, and with two wins away from home in the last three weeks, a regression towards the mean is imminent.

With the Warriors being a risky tip straight up and the Roosters only paying $1.33, the H2H market doesn't carry a lot of value.

As for the line, it' a coin toss according to the SI Model. They couldn't be split following 10,000 simulations of the match.

The Warriors forward pack will decide whether or not the visitors can keep it close enough to cover the spread. Sam Lisone is a big out due to suspension, but with the lacklustre Adam Blair being shifted to lock, Agnatius Paasi get's a chance to start a prop.

If they can keep up with the Chooks and their second-ranked 1,466 running metres per game, Shaun Johnson will have a chance to have an impact. He waited until the dying moment last week but will know his influence needs to be felt early if the Warriors are to keep it close.

The worry biggest worry comes for the Warriors at the defensive end.

They've conceded the third-most line breaks in the competition so far with Peta Hiku right up there in terms of missed tackles with 15 for the season already. Luke Keary is going to have a field day running and directing traffic through that Warriors right edge defence which is where the lean towards the Roosters at -8.5 comes in.

Throw Keary in with Cooper Cronk, James Tedesco, Latrell Mitchell and Blake Ferguson, and all you see is the scoreboard continuously ticking over.

It's not enough for the Model to like the Total going Over, though.

The Model may only like the Over in 47% of the 10,000 simulations, but if you're picking up what the Warriors have been putting down the last three weeks, there are plenty of scenarios where you can see this game being a try-fest.

"It's a matter of faith" is an old Warriors slogan, but it couldn't be more relevant today.

If you've got faith, the Warriors at +8.5 is a must. However, history and the SI Model suggest taking the Roosters to cover the -8.5 line.