Footy Forensics: Warriors v Tigers

The Warriors were handed a 50-10 lesson by the Storm last week while the wheels on the Tigers bus are starting to wobble following back-to-back defeats.

Both clubs are using Round 9 as a pad to relaunch their season, but only one side can move forward with two competition points.

After simulating the match 10,000 times, the Stats Insider Model is tipping the Warriors to be victorious in 66% of matches, sending the Tigers to a third consecutive defeat.

It will have a lot to do with the return of some key men for the Warriors.

Shaun Johnson returns to the halves, and as a former Golden Boot winner as well as a potential match-winner every time he steps on the field, will give the Warriors a huge boost. On attack, in particular.

Solomone Kata hadn't been in the greatest form before going down, but he's a wrecking ball that can cause havoc on an opposition defensive line at any time.

Perhaps the biggest In for the Warriors is Tohu Harris.

A Buy of the Year candidate, Harris has seen the right side of the Warriors attack become one of the most potent in the competition. His combination with Peta Hiku and David Fusitu'a is lethal and will be one area Ivan Cleary circles in his scouting report for the Tigers this week.

Heavy favourites at $1.56, the Warriors are the H2H tip. They are the more complete of the two sides and Mt Smart as always been a good stomping ground for them. Even at their worst.

It's predicting which version of the Tigers defence turns up that decides the Line.

The SI Model isn't sure, leaving just 2% between the Tigers covering, and not covering the -5.5 Line.

If Wests keep missing tackles, the Warriors will pile on the points.

An Eels side averaging fewer than 10 points per game heading into their match last week, put 24 on the Tigers.

The Warriors could have that many by halftime if there isn't an improvement.

However, if the Tigers do find their defence that kept the Storm to just 10 points at Mt Smart Stadium three weeks ago, the +5.5 is the play.

The return of Elijah Taylor this week should ensure they clean up some of the 47.5 missed tackles they've averaged in their back-to-back losses.

Wests are no strangers to close games. Nor are they unfamiliar with low-scoring ones when their defence turns up.

Again, though, the Model doesn't know which Tigers team boarded the plane across the ditch.

The leaky defence; Warriors go Over the 39.5 Total on their own.

The stringent defence; this game would be lucky to see 20 points all up.

It will come as no surprise the SI Model isn't sending out any value punts for this one. The two teams are too unpredictable and there is still the sense of inevitability that one will crumble as the season goes on considering neither was expected to make the Top 8.

Luckily in the NRL, we've got eight games a week spread our hard-earned across.

Although this week, it might be best to make that seven.

No Bet on Warriors v Tigers.

We don't need the unnecessary heart palpitations sweating over a result nobody can predict.