For and Against: Melbourne Storm winning the Premiership
Last updated: Sep 3, 2020, 4:28AM | Published: Sep 3, 2020, 4:23AMDespite tips predicting an end to their dominance popping up throughout the preseason in each of the last three years, the Melbourne Storm dynasty has made it through to 2020 and may yet add another premiership.
The 2020 NRL season feels like it's set up to send the greatest player of all time out in the best possible fashion. Cameron Smith is deciding on his future with the 37-year-old expected to make a call in the coming weeks. His Storm currently sits 2nd on the ladder and at the top of the Stats Insider model's futures projections.
But as we know all too well, things don't always go to plan in rugby league. We've already covered the possible scenarios for the Sydney Roosters and Parramatta Eels. Now it's the Storm's turn. While they may be travelling well towards finals footy right now, they still have plenty of hurdles to clear if they're to add another trophy to the cabinet.
For Winning the Premiership
The Melbourne Storm are elite on both sides of the ball.
Their 25.3 points per game currently ranks 3rd in the NRL while they have the best defence of all 16 teams conceding just 11.8 points per game. Premiership winners in the NRL era tend to play with an attack inside the top three in the competition while 12 of the last 14 premiers have ranked in the top two in defence.
As it stands, the Storm are perfectly set up to go deep into October with their 26.2% to win the Grand Final the Stats Insider futures model'shighest projection.
While Melbourne's 25.3 points per game is impressive enough, it's the variation in which they attack that offers the most hope of a premiership. We've seen what a one-dimensional attack can do with the Eels. Their left edge was a consistent source of points throughout the opening 11 rounds for the Eels to average 23.1 points per game. That would give them the 5th-best attack in the NRL right now. However, as the defence has adjusted, the Eels haven't been able to keep up the pace. Their 11.6 points per game over the last five rounds has brought their season-average down to 19.5 points (9th) and they're running out of time to find a fix.
The Storm, on the other hand, score points in a variety of ways and all across the park. They've scored 26 of their 67 tries on the left side (39%), 14 tries through the middle (21%) and 27 tries on the right side (40%).
Josh Addo-Carr has caught fire of late to be equal-6th on the try-scoring list with 12 for the season while Justin Olam continued on his career-year with a hattrick in Round 16. The Storm left edge is lethal at all times. During set-piece, in particular.
With so many ball-players through the middle of the field, the Storm have a menu of options on every shift. Here, Brandon Smith is one option Cameron Smith skipped for Dale Finucane. As Tevita Pangai Jr turns in on Finucane, the Storm lock hits Tino Fa'asuamaleaui who is isolated on Ben Te'o. Te'o is a big body, but nobody is stopping Fa'asuamaleaui from there. Had the defence remained square, Finucane had Hughes available out the back with a gaping hole in front of him.
The development of Ryan Papenhuyzen has opened up Melbourne's right side further. He's a dangerous target with the ball in hand while his acceleration is always in the minds of a sliding defence. The threat of Papenhuyzen, presence of a prolific hole-runner in Felise Kaufusi, and a perfect double-pump and pass from Munster allows Brenko Lee to stroll over the line untouched for this one.
Around the ruck, well, nobody has ever done it better than Smith. He doesn't get out from dummy half like the Damian Cook's and Harry Grant's of the NRL, but he knows exactly when to take a couple of extra steps to engage the defence before sending it wide. A combination of the Fa'asuamaleaui and Lee tries above and another perfect example of their variation, Smith engages the defence forcing the opposing back rower to turn in on Kaufusi. That isolates Nelson Asofa-Solomona onto Ash Taylor with this result expected to be the same 100 times out of 100.
Melbourne might not have the big-name strike weapons of the Sydney Roosters, but they're just as well-drilled. They can score from anywhere on the field in any fashion.
Their NRL-best defence that allows the opposition to score only 11.6 points per game adds even more to Melbourne's premiership credentials. It's what separates the good teams from the great teams at the pointy end of the season. While some can pile up points throughout the regular season, we know that stopping them coming through the other way is the key to success.
Against Winning the Premiership
There isn't a lot going against the Storm at the moment outside the obvious:
- They're still playing away from Melbourne and are unlikely to play a true home game again this season. While Suncorp Stadium is an ideal back up and they have an outstanding record at the venue, it's not going to be laced in purple jerseys.
- The Storm will need to get past one, if not two, really strong teams to lift the Provan-Summons Trophy. The Roosters still have the highest ceiling of any team in the competition. We're yet to see the 17 that would be expected to run out for a Grand Final play together in 2020. Meanwhile, the Penrith Panthers are on an 11-game winning streak which doesn't look like it will end soon.
Some aren't so obvious but can be fixed or rely on an element of luck:
- While the game has changed and historical numbers don't always offer an accurate look into the future, Melbourne's yardage game is a slight cause for concern. Premiership winners tend to be towards the top of the list when it comes to running metres per game. Five of the last six have been inside the top three in yardage. Right now, Melbourne's 1,725 metres per game ranks 7th in the NRL. No team since at least 2009 has won the premiership while finishing below 7th in running metres.
- Further to Melbourne's yardage is the importance of Fa'asuamaleaui and Asofa-Solomona off the bench. The massive duo have been excellent in their stints either side of half time. They run rampant against a tiring defence with Craig Bellamy applying a crash and bash style through the middle of the game. Fa'asuamaleaui averages 126.1 metres per game off the bench while Asofa-Solomona adds 118.3 metres. In losing one of the bench pair or somebody in the starting lineup to force a reshuffle, the Storm would give up one of their most underappreciated strengths.
Looking Ahead
The Stats Insider futures model has the Storm as favourites, and with how things stand right now, it's hard to argue. They have the talent both on and off the field while only the Roosters rival their experience in big-game situations.
With an attack that can adjust to what the defence in front of them offers and a defence that they themselves can rely on, the Storm are well-positioned to add another premiership to the dynasty many have said is ending over each of the last three seasons. If Smith announces that this season will be his last, the fairytale finish for the greatest of all time seems like a formality.
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