Futures: Predictions for the 2022-23 NBA Championship
Oct 12, 2022, 9:18AM
With the 2022-23 NBA quickly approaching, it’s time to look into which teams are contending for the title of champions.
After two seasons of relative ignominy, the Golden State Warriors were crowned champions in 2021-22, led by first-time finals MVP Steph Curry, who added the final individual prize to his impressive collection, shutting down his detractors in the process.
Is it the start of another incredible run? Or will we have a new champion for the fifth consecutive season? Let's look at some of the top chances to be crowned the best team in basketball:
Golden State Warriors
2022-23 NBA title probability: 12.5%
2022-23 NBA title odds: $8 at Sportsbet
2021-22 NBA finish: Champions
It’s hard not to start off with the reigning victors, who only went two seasons without winning the Western Conference, having won it for each of the five seasons between 2015 and 2019.
What keeps the Warriors relevant is their experience. During the regular season, they were the third seed in the West, averaged the 15th most points per game in the league (111) with the equal seventh-highest three-point percentage (36.4%), on the third most three-point attempts (39.4 per game).
The big difference came on the defensive end, conceding seven fewer points per game than the previous season to rank third in the NBA, largely as a result of the significant impact Gary Payton II, Draymond Green and Otto Porter had.
Since last season, Payton and Porter have taken up opportunities elsewhere and Green’s future is unclear after attacking teammate Jordan Poole in practice.
Replacement signings Donte DiVincenzo and JaMychal Green have pedigree as bench players in the league, but to replicate the defensive absences may be a bridge too far for the three-point shooting depth players.
The Warriors will hope for Andrew Wiggins to pick up where he left off with his breakout playoff showing, averaging 7.5 rebounds, one steal and one block per game, while we can expect to see a lot more of James Wiseman and Jonathan Kuminga.
These might be too many unknowns for the defending champions.
Boston Celtics
2022-23 NBA title probability: 14.3%
2022-23 NBA title odds: $8 at Ladbrokes
2021-22 NBA finish: Runners-up (six games vs Warriors)
If it weren’t for the off-court news resulting in the suspension of coach Ime Udoka, perhaps the Celtics would be a team looked upon even more favourably heading into the season.
A loss in six games in their first finals appearance in 12 seasons left a sour taste in the mouth of Boston fans, but the Celtics have improved upon an already impressive young roster that looks to stay in contention for a while to come.
A statistical darling, Boston plays at their own pace, ranked on of the league’s seven slowest teams and possessing the equal highest net rating overall, locking themselves into the second seed in the East comfortably from a numerical point of view, despite the final records being tight.
Despite the season-ending injury to Danilo Gallinari, the Celtics have improved their bench play with all-round reliable guard Malcolm Brogdon joining the second unit, as well as former top pick Blake Griffin.
Noah Vonleh’s return to the league will be used to try help cover Robert Williams’ expected absence over the first portion of the season alongside Al Horford.
But in reality, Boston’s hopes will be squarely on the shoulder of superstar Jayson Tatum and sidekick Jaylen Brown, to take another step forward after their finals experience last season.
There’s a strong mix of defensive presence and firecrackers on offence that will cause issues for every team in the league, making the Celtics one of the most likely teams to compete for the Championship.
Given the NBA is all about narrative, expect Tatum to vote well come MVP time if Boston ends up the top seed in the East, given the off-court drama.
Milwaukee Bucks
2022-23 NBA title probability: 10.0%
2022-23 NBA title odds: $8 at TopSport
2021-22 NBA finish: Lost in the second round (seven games vs Celtics)
Their aspirations for back-to-back titles fell short in game seven of the Eastern Conference Semifinals, although things may have been very different for the Bucks if Khris Middleton had been able to feature during the series.
It takes Milwaukee forward into this season, with the best player in the world, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and his very familiar supporting cast alongside him, aiming to make it two titles in three seasons.
In a league full of player movement and often lacking in loyalty, the Bucks have maintained a remarkable consistent group across the last couple of seasons.
We can expect much of the same from the Bucks this year. Grayson Allen, Pat Connaughton, Jrue Holiday and Middleton all averaged at least two three-pointers a game, shooting at 39%, while having big centre in Bobby Portis and the returning Brook Lopez as reliable shooters means the team’s spacing will be maintained at a high level.
Antetokounmpo runs his own game at Milwaukee and his incredible ability running downhill makes him both an unstoppable force, yet one that is magnetic, while will only continue to help his teammates.
He remains one of the league’s best defensive big men while Holiday is still close to his peak as the best defensive guard in the NBA. The addition of Joe Ingles to the squad upon his recovery from a knee injury post All-Star break is a cherry on top for Milwaukee.
Mike Budenholzer is one of the best coaches going around and knows exactly how his team should be playing.
Los Angeles Clippers
2022-23 NBA title probability: 8.5%
2022-23 NBA title odds: $8 at Ladbrokes
2021-22 NBA finish: Lost in play-in tournament (vs Pelicans)
With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George both fit and the signing of John Wall to run point, could this finally be the season for the Clippers?
Certainly, they went all in when they recruited the extremely talented, yet injury-prone duo and no less than a ring will suffice.
Still, the Clippers likely have time on their side with both stars in their early 30s, so now it will be a matter of keeping them fit and refreshed throughout the season – rotating them for 60 games each seems the likely scenario.
There were positives to take from last season’s failed play-in tournament. Luke Kennard was lights-out from beyond the arc, Terence Mann’s all-round impact proved to be valuable, while in just five games, Norman Powell looked the goods.
Having played significant minutes last season, these guys will all run the second unit and have the confidence to do whatever the team needs.
Teams with great depth are successful and if Kawhi and George are fit, no one’s depth can touch the Clippers.
Brooklyn Nets
2022-23 NBA title probability: 8.6%
2022-23 NBA title odds: $9 at TAB
2021-22 NBA finish: Lost in first round (four game vs Celtics)
Once again in 2022-23, everything to do with Brooklyn is hypothetical.
Despite rumours, demands and threats, the Nets will enter the season with all of Ben Simmons, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant on the roster.
The few possessions we saw with these three in preseason looked great, but keeping them all on the court for a reasonable amount of time means relying on their bodies and their mentalities, which is a tough ask.
Still, having one of the greatest players of all time leading the way with these other two, as well as Joe Harris’ shooting coming back, the Nets can easily win it all if everything plays out normally.
But, normal? That’s a big if at the Nets.
Minnesota Timberwolves
2022-23 NBA title probability: 2.5%
2022-23 NBA title odds: $34 at TAB
2021-22 NBA finish: Champions
Finally, it’s worth quickly touching upon the Timberwolves.
They didn’t go out and recruit Rudy Gobert to keep aiming for a spot in the play-in now, did they?
President of Basketball Operations Tim Connelly arrived from Denver in May and in July traded potentially six first-round picks to create a duo of Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns duo, the likes of which has never really been seen in the NBA.
Will having two seven-footers as starters work out for the Timberwolves?
Clearly, they’ve covered Towns’ defensive deficiencies and are looking to unlock his offensive capabilities alongside Anthony Edwards, making for a fascinating season ahead.
If it works, the Timberwolves may have catapulted themselves into contention.
If it doesn’t, they may have just thrown away their future one or another.
Either way, it’s going to be epic.
