Hawthorn vs Brisbane Prediction and Tips - AFL Round 11, 2024
Last updated: May 26, 2024, 3:01AM | Published: May 20, 2024, 9:00AM
Hawthorn will face Brisbane in AFL Round 11 action at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, commencing at 1:10pm AEST.
Stats Insider's best betting tips for the Hawthorn vs Brisbane game, plus the latest betting odds and goalscorer tips, are featured below.
Who Will Win: Hawthorn vs Brisbane
Using high-tech machine learning and data, Stats Insider has simulated the result of Sunday's Hawthorn-Brisbane AFL match 10,000 times.
Our proven predictive analytics model gives the Lions a 54% chance of winning against the Hawks at Marvel Stadium.
More: Hawthorn vs Brisbane Simulated 10K Times
Hawthorn vs Brisbane: Odds
The latest betting odds for Sunday's AFL clash at Marvel Stadium are shown below:
- Head to Head: Hawthorn $2.88, Brisbane $1.52
- Line: Hawthorn +14.5 ($1.84), Brisbane -14.5 ($2.10)
- Total (Over/Under 164.5 Points): Over $2.02, Under $1.96
Odds via Betfair are correct at time of publishing and subject to change.
Looking at the latest head-to-head odds, Betfair currently has Hawthorn at $2.88 and Brisbane at $1.52.
The Hawks are 14.5-point underdogs against the Lions, with odds of $1.84 currently available at Betfair.
For the favourite Lions (-14.5) to cover the line, Betfair currently has odds of $2.10.
The Over/Under for Hawthorn vs Brisbane sits at 164.5 with TAB, which currently has odds for the Over at $2.02 and odds for the Under at $1.96.
According to Stats Insider's model, the Hawks (+14.5) have a 66% chance of covering the line, while the Over/Under total of 164.5 points has a 53% chance of staying Under.
More: Live Scores for All Sports
Hawthorn vs Brisbane: Best Bets
- Head to Head: Hawthorn at $2.88 with Betfair (11.1% edge) 🔥
- Line: Hawthorn +14.5 at $1.84 with Betfair (66% probability) 🔥
- Total Points: Under 164.5 at $1.96 with Betfair (53% probability)
When you see a 🔥, you know you've found one of our best bets for today across all sports.
Our Hawthorn vs Brisbane betting tips are based on complex modelling and wagering expertise to help you place more informed bets with your chosen online bookie.
While the Lions have a higher chance of winning the game, betting on the Hawks to win is our recommended option because of the 11.1% edge found when comparing our data-driven probabilities to the odds currently available.
Making use of the edges published on Stats Insider is crucial to achieving long-term success as a bettor.
Hawthorn vs Brisbane: Prediction
Stats Insider's predicted final score for Hawthorn vs Brisbane at Marvel Stadium this Sunday has Brisbane winning 83-79.
This prediction is based on each team's average score following 10,000 game simulations.
Stats Insider has full betting coverage of Hawthorn vs Brisbane on Sunday, including pre-match predictions, expert tips, and live win probabilities.
Hawthorn vs Brisbane: Goal Kickers
Searching for Hawthorn vs Brisbane goal kicker tips? The latest data is in.
According to Stats Insider, Brisbane's Joe Daniher is the most likely player to kick the first goal in Hawthorn vs Brisbane.
Daniher has an 8.8% chance of kicking the first goal at Marvel Stadium, while the Lions star has a 92.3% chance of kicking a goal at any time during the game.
Scroll down for our full list of first goalscorer and anytime goalscorer probabilities.
First Goal Scorer Tips
Hawthorn
- Luke Breust: 5.9% probability
- Mabior Chol: 5.0% probability
- Jack Ginnivan: 4.8% probability
- Jack Gunston: 4.7% probability
- Dylan Moore: 4.2% probability
Brisbane
- Joe Daniher: 8.8% probability
- Charlie Cameron: 6.6% probability
- Logan Morris: 5.4% probability
- Brandon Ryan: 4.9% probability
- Zac Bailey: 4.1% probability
Anytime Goal Kicker Tips
Hawthorn
- Luke Breust: 83.0% probability
- Jack Ginnivan: 76.1% probability
- Mabior Chol: 73.2% probability
- Jack Gunston: 71.2% probability
- Dylan Moore: 68.9% probability
Brisbane
- Joe Daniher: 92.3% probability
- Charlie Cameron: 84.7% probability
- Logan Morris: 78.5% probability
- Brandon Ryan: 74.9% probability
- Zac Bailey: 67.8% probability
Our model updates regularly, so refresh this article for the latest betting analysis before the Hawthorn vs Brisbane game at Marvel Stadium.
As always, check out Stats Insider's Best Bets to get the best tips on every AFL match, as well as a host of other sports that we offer predictions on.
More: AFL Player Ratings 2024
Hawthorn vs Brisbane: Preview
The AFL Round 11 clash between the Hawks and Lions at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:10pm AEST on Sunday.
All dates and times in this article are in Australian Eastern Standard Time (AEST) unless otherwise noted.
Our Hawthorn vs Brisbane predictions have been made based on 10,000 data-driven simulations of the match, carefully curated by our team of experienced data scientists and analysts. We use cutting-edge technology and machine learning to ensure our AFL tips are accurate and reliable, giving you the confidence to make informed decisions.
If you choose to use our AFL predictions for betting purposes, it's crucial that you gamble responsibly and manage your finances effectively. For free and confidential support, call 1800 858 858 or visit gamblinghelponline.org.au.
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